NBA Finals 2011
Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat (-4) Over/Under 188
So here we are on the brink of the NBA Finals, and all I can think about is why the Lakers fell apart at the end of the season. My conclusion: the Lakers looked old and slow. Their inability to attack the rim Or hit 3-pointers left them unable to stretch the opponents' defense. Dallas has been superb at finding the open man around the three point line and hitting their shots. Miami's key to success has come from their dribble penetration and ability to get to the basket. The Heat and Mavs are also very similar.
Both teams have gone 12-3 in the playoffs.
Both teams played tough defense and controlled the boards despite being undersized.
Both teams dominated from the free throw line.
Both teams had the best player on the court in each playoff series (Dirk and Lebron).
Both teams Cannot win this series
Key Players: G Dwayne Wade vs G Jason Terry.
-Wade played terrible last round vs the Bulls and the Heat had no problem with the Bulls. That won't be the case in the Finals. This is definitely Lebron's team, but he will need 25+ a game (yes, that's a lot) from Wade for the Heat to win the crown.
-Terry has been the difference in the Mavs' playoff run. His ability to score off the bench with great efficiency has given Dallas a huge edge in bench play against each opponent. Reminds me of the difference that Lamar Odom gave the Lakers the last couple of years during their title runs. Terry can do it all just like Odom.
Prediction: The series will go six or seven games and the games will be close. I don't see a huge home court advantage, like we have seen in recent years. My initial reaction is to go with the Heat in seven games. The Heat are more talented and have the home court advantage. The Mavs have been shooting way too well from downtown and it will have to stop sometime soon. The Heat bench should continue to improve as their role players get more comfortable. Lebron will win his first Title and the Finals MVP.
Game 1 Action - The game line has dropped from 5 points to 4 in favor of the Heat, while the total has remained firm. Normally, I always prefer the Over but I am worried about the big layoff between rounds. Let's roll with the Under 188 and the Heat to win.
MLB Pick = Texas Rangers (-135) at TB Rays
Go with the Rangers and ace CJ Wilson (5-3, 3.25 ERA) against the struggling Rays rookie Alex Cobb. Cobb got pounded in his only start this season (4 runs in 4.33 innings) against the Angels. The Rays have lost seven of their last ten games, including last night to Texas 11-5. Go with the Rangers!!
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Friday, May 27, 2011
Friday's Big Pick
MLB
Philadelphia Phillies (-145) at NY Mets
The first place Phils travel to the Big Apple to face the fourth place Mets. Philadelphia will throw Roy Oswalt (3-2, 2.77 ERA) against the Mets' lefty Chris Capuano (3-5, 5.36 ERA). The Phillies are a major league best 12-3 versus starting lefties this season. Capuano just gave up six runs in his last outing while getting pummeled by the Yankees. Oswalt has allowed just one run in each of his last two starts and should have no problem with a weak hitting Mets lineup without star 3B David Wright. Let's go with the Phillies!!
Philadelphia Phillies (-145) at NY Mets
The first place Phils travel to the Big Apple to face the fourth place Mets. Philadelphia will throw Roy Oswalt (3-2, 2.77 ERA) against the Mets' lefty Chris Capuano (3-5, 5.36 ERA). The Phillies are a major league best 12-3 versus starting lefties this season. Capuano just gave up six runs in his last outing while getting pummeled by the Yankees. Oswalt has allowed just one run in each of his last two starts and should have no problem with a weak hitting Mets lineup without star 3B David Wright. Let's go with the Phillies!!
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
MLB Quick Picks
Alright, it's Hump Day and I have two quick looks.......
1) St. Louis (-120) at SD Padres
Cards send Carpenter to the mound against the feeble Pads and their ace Matt Latos. Latos has struggled this year, and with the Padres terrible offense and defense that should present a problem again tonight. Carpenter is desperate for a win, but make no doubt about it---he has stunk in 2011. Luckily the Pads are the worst team in baseball and the Cards cannot afford to lose in "America's Finest City". Go with the Cards to win!!
2) Arizona D-Backs (+110) at Colorado Rockies (-130)
The Snakes send their best pitcher in Ian Kennedy (5-1, 3.24 ERA) against the Rockies worst starter, Jason Hammel (3-3, 3.59 ERA). Hammel has been hammered at home this season for a 5.19 ERA and gave up 10 earned runs in his last two home outings. On the flip side, Kennedy has only allowed 5 earned runs all year long while pitching on the road. The Snakes are hot and have won eight of their last ten games. Getting the +110 is nice for this upset bid, go with the Snakes!!
**On another note, I like the Mavs tonight to win but (-7.5) points seems a little high, should be more like 4.5.
1) St. Louis (-120) at SD Padres
Cards send Carpenter to the mound against the feeble Pads and their ace Matt Latos. Latos has struggled this year, and with the Padres terrible offense and defense that should present a problem again tonight. Carpenter is desperate for a win, but make no doubt about it---he has stunk in 2011. Luckily the Pads are the worst team in baseball and the Cards cannot afford to lose in "America's Finest City". Go with the Cards to win!!
2) Arizona D-Backs (+110) at Colorado Rockies (-130)
The Snakes send their best pitcher in Ian Kennedy (5-1, 3.24 ERA) against the Rockies worst starter, Jason Hammel (3-3, 3.59 ERA). Hammel has been hammered at home this season for a 5.19 ERA and gave up 10 earned runs in his last two home outings. On the flip side, Kennedy has only allowed 5 earned runs all year long while pitching on the road. The Snakes are hot and have won eight of their last ten games. Getting the +110 is nice for this upset bid, go with the Snakes!!
**On another note, I like the Mavs tonight to win but (-7.5) points seems a little high, should be more like 4.5.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Hind Sight is 20/20 and 2 Big Picks
Upon Further Review
Now that the Dallas Mavs and Miami Heat on their way to the NBA Finals, let's review my column from the NBA's last playoff round--I said that it was not a good sign to see the Thunder and Bulls both struggle at home against Round 2 opponents, Indiana and Memphis. Also stated that it might not hurt them against those weaker opponents but that we were worried about the Conference Finals instead.
The Mavs are playing just ridiculous basketball right now--no one can guard Dirk Nowitzki. He's too tall with too much range and a great post-up game. He's a matchup nightmare for anyone. If Serge Ibaka and Nick Collison can't even slow him down, then the Thunder have no chance. They are Done!
The Heat finally are playing great team ball, yes I know that they have been playing well all season but right now they are at the top of their game. They should put the one-man team, Bulls, away rather easily. The Bulls simply aren't as good as the Heat and cannot stop the Heat. Chicago was carried all season by Derrick Rose and their defense, which are just over matched in the Eastern Conference Finals. Look for the Heat to put the Bulls to rest soon.
NBA Pick - Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat (-5) - Over/Under 179
Let's roll with the Heat to keep it going. Too many scorers on Miami and their bench is contributing nicely. The Bulls were a nice story, but that will be over soon. Get ready for a rematch of the 2006 Finals, but without Shaq. Look for Miami to push the tempo a little after wild shots by the Bulls leading to easy buckets. Go with the Heat!!
MLB Game - KC Royals at Baltimore Orioles (-165)
KC has lost seven of their last ten games and are a major league Worst 5-11 on the Road this season. They are throwing their rookie left-hander Danny Duffy (0-0, 4.50 ERA) against the Baltimore ace Zach Britton (5-2, 2.14 ERA). Duffy walked six batters and gave up four hits while throwing 94 pitches in just four innings in his major league debut. Britton hasn't allowed an earned run in his last two starts and should have no problem with the slumping Royals full of left-handed hitters. Go with the Orioles!!
Now that the Dallas Mavs and Miami Heat on their way to the NBA Finals, let's review my column from the NBA's last playoff round--I said that it was not a good sign to see the Thunder and Bulls both struggle at home against Round 2 opponents, Indiana and Memphis. Also stated that it might not hurt them against those weaker opponents but that we were worried about the Conference Finals instead.
The Mavs are playing just ridiculous basketball right now--no one can guard Dirk Nowitzki. He's too tall with too much range and a great post-up game. He's a matchup nightmare for anyone. If Serge Ibaka and Nick Collison can't even slow him down, then the Thunder have no chance. They are Done!
The Heat finally are playing great team ball, yes I know that they have been playing well all season but right now they are at the top of their game. They should put the one-man team, Bulls, away rather easily. The Bulls simply aren't as good as the Heat and cannot stop the Heat. Chicago was carried all season by Derrick Rose and their defense, which are just over matched in the Eastern Conference Finals. Look for the Heat to put the Bulls to rest soon.
NBA Pick - Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat (-5) - Over/Under 179
Let's roll with the Heat to keep it going. Too many scorers on Miami and their bench is contributing nicely. The Bulls were a nice story, but that will be over soon. Get ready for a rematch of the 2006 Finals, but without Shaq. Look for Miami to push the tempo a little after wild shots by the Bulls leading to easy buckets. Go with the Heat!!
MLB Game - KC Royals at Baltimore Orioles (-165)
KC has lost seven of their last ten games and are a major league Worst 5-11 on the Road this season. They are throwing their rookie left-hander Danny Duffy (0-0, 4.50 ERA) against the Baltimore ace Zach Britton (5-2, 2.14 ERA). Duffy walked six batters and gave up four hits while throwing 94 pitches in just four innings in his major league debut. Britton hasn't allowed an earned run in his last two starts and should have no problem with the slumping Royals full of left-handed hitters. Go with the Orioles!!
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
MLB Run Line Pick for Wednesday
MLB
LA Angels at Seattle Mariners - Seattle Run Line is 3 Runs
The Angels will throw their ace Jered Weaver to the mound tonight to try to end their three game road losing streak. Weaver is 6-3 with a 2.26 ERA on the year and should have no problem shutting down the Mariners in their extra-large home ballpark. The Mariners have only topped three runs just once in their last seven home games. The Mariners hit .226 as a team and are even worse at home. Go with the Mariners to score Under 3 Runs!!
**Remember that if they score 3 Runs then you Tie and get refunded.
LA Angels at Seattle Mariners - Seattle Run Line is 3 Runs
The Angels will throw their ace Jered Weaver to the mound tonight to try to end their three game road losing streak. Weaver is 6-3 with a 2.26 ERA on the year and should have no problem shutting down the Mariners in their extra-large home ballpark. The Mariners have only topped three runs just once in their last seven home games. The Mariners hit .226 as a team and are even worse at home. Go with the Mariners to score Under 3 Runs!!
**Remember that if they score 3 Runs then you Tie and get refunded.
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
MLB Quick Pick
MLB
NY Yankees at TB Rays (-135)
The Yanks will try to end a season high six game losing streak tonight while visiting the first place Rays. The Yanks will throw their worst starting pitcher so far this season, Ivan Nova (3-3, 4.70 ERA), and the Rays will counter with James Shields (4-1, 2.08 ERA). Shields has been dominant in all but one of his eight starts this season. He hasn't allowed more than 2 earned runs in seven starts--wow! Nova has been erratic so far, and got bombed in his last outing by KC for eight runs in only 3 innings. The Yanks are in a funk and should continue to struggle at least for one more day. Go with the Rays to win!!
NY Yankees at TB Rays (-135)
The Yanks will try to end a season high six game losing streak tonight while visiting the first place Rays. The Yanks will throw their worst starting pitcher so far this season, Ivan Nova (3-3, 4.70 ERA), and the Rays will counter with James Shields (4-1, 2.08 ERA). Shields has been dominant in all but one of his eight starts this season. He hasn't allowed more than 2 earned runs in seven starts--wow! Nova has been erratic so far, and got bombed in his last outing by KC for eight runs in only 3 innings. The Yanks are in a funk and should continue to struggle at least for one more day. Go with the Rays to win!!
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
MLB Run Line Pick for Wednesday
St. Louis Cards at Chicago Cubs - -Cards Run Line is 3.5 Runs
The Cards are in Chicago again after winning last night 6-4, and have four of their last five games. The Cards will be facing righty Matt Garza (1-4, 4.43 ERA), who has yet to win at Wrigley this year. The Cardinals are first in the National League in hitting and runs scored. They have averaged over 5 runs a game this year and Albert Pujols has finally started hitting. Look for the Cards to score OVER 3.5 Runs!!
The Cards are in Chicago again after winning last night 6-4, and have four of their last five games. The Cards will be facing righty Matt Garza (1-4, 4.43 ERA), who has yet to win at Wrigley this year. The Cardinals are first in the National League in hitting and runs scored. They have averaged over 5 runs a game this year and Albert Pujols has finally started hitting. Look for the Cards to score OVER 3.5 Runs!!
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
MLB Quick Pick
SD Padres at Milwaukee Brewers (-160)
The Brew Crew host the Pads tonight in Milwaukee. The Brewers won a close one last night 4-3 against SD ace Matt Latos. The Brewers throw Shaun Marcum (3-1, 2.06 ERA) against Padre lefty Clayton Richard (1-3, 3.55 ERA). The Brewers have struggled a little this year but are still far superior to the Padres in just about every faucet of the game, except relief pitching. Experts were picking this Brewers team to make a postseason run before the season started. They have a ton of talent. Look for the Brewers to get ahead early and take down the Pad squad rather easily. Go with the Brewers!!
The Brew Crew host the Pads tonight in Milwaukee. The Brewers won a close one last night 4-3 against SD ace Matt Latos. The Brewers throw Shaun Marcum (3-1, 2.06 ERA) against Padre lefty Clayton Richard (1-3, 3.55 ERA). The Brewers have struggled a little this year but are still far superior to the Padres in just about every faucet of the game, except relief pitching. Experts were picking this Brewers team to make a postseason run before the season started. They have a ton of talent. Look for the Brewers to get ahead early and take down the Pad squad rather easily. Go with the Brewers!!
Monday, May 9, 2011
NBA Monday
Miami Heat at Boston Celtics (+1.5) - Over/Under 181
The Heat lead the series 2-1 against the Celtics, but haven't won a game in Boston this season (0-3). The Celtics are a veteran team that know how to win big games, especially at home. The Celtics went 9-3 last year at home in the playoffs and are now 3-0 at home this postseason. The Celtics had the third best record at home this season going 33-8. The Heat obviously have a lot of talent, but really aren't as tough and experienced as the C's. Look for the Celtics to take it to the Heat in Game 4. Go with the Celtics!!
OKC Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies (-1.5) - Over/Under 198
This reminds me of the Spurs series all over again, when I warned you about the Grizzlies shocking the Spurs. The Grizzlies were 3-1 against the Spurs this season and were also 3-1 against the Thunder. So we are gonna go with the team playing better ball again--the Memphis Grizz. Zach Randolph has dominated this series like he did against the Spurs in round one. The jump shooting Thunder have struggled against the strength of the Grizzlies. The Grizz will pound the paint again and should come out on top. Go with the Grizzlies!!
**Odd trends in the NBA Playoffs
1. When the team Favored wins the game it has a tendency for the Over/Under to go UNDER.
2. When the Underdog wins the game, the games are higher scoring usually resulting in the OVER.
3. Beware of teams not playing great basketball at home. I am almost worried about the Bulls and Thunder, if not this round than the next round.
4. The Memphis Grizzlies are HOT!
The Heat lead the series 2-1 against the Celtics, but haven't won a game in Boston this season (0-3). The Celtics are a veteran team that know how to win big games, especially at home. The Celtics went 9-3 last year at home in the playoffs and are now 3-0 at home this postseason. The Celtics had the third best record at home this season going 33-8. The Heat obviously have a lot of talent, but really aren't as tough and experienced as the C's. Look for the Celtics to take it to the Heat in Game 4. Go with the Celtics!!
OKC Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies (-1.5) - Over/Under 198
This reminds me of the Spurs series all over again, when I warned you about the Grizzlies shocking the Spurs. The Grizzlies were 3-1 against the Spurs this season and were also 3-1 against the Thunder. So we are gonna go with the team playing better ball again--the Memphis Grizz. Zach Randolph has dominated this series like he did against the Spurs in round one. The jump shooting Thunder have struggled against the strength of the Grizzlies. The Grizz will pound the paint again and should come out on top. Go with the Grizzlies!!
**Odd trends in the NBA Playoffs
1. When the team Favored wins the game it has a tendency for the Over/Under to go UNDER.
2. When the Underdog wins the game, the games are higher scoring usually resulting in the OVER.
3. Beware of teams not playing great basketball at home. I am almost worried about the Bulls and Thunder, if not this round than the next round.
4. The Memphis Grizzlies are HOT!
Thursday, May 5, 2011
Cinco de Drinko
Texas Rangers (-115) at Seattle Mariners - Ranger Run Line 3.5 Runs
The Rangers pound lefties and will be facing Jason Vargas (1-2, 5.45 ERA). Vargas started out the season decently but has been lit up recently, but has allowed 10 earned runs in his last two starts while going 12 innings. The Rangers have a heavy right handed lineup and should have no problem with Vargas and the shady Mariner defense. Colby Lewis (2-3, 5.70 ERA) was the Ranger ace last year and threw 8 innings of two run ball last outing vs the A's. Look for the Rangers to go Over 3.5 Runs!!
The Rangers pound lefties and will be facing Jason Vargas (1-2, 5.45 ERA). Vargas started out the season decently but has been lit up recently, but has allowed 10 earned runs in his last two starts while going 12 innings. The Rangers have a heavy right handed lineup and should have no problem with Vargas and the shady Mariner defense. Colby Lewis (2-3, 5.70 ERA) was the Ranger ace last year and threw 8 innings of two run ball last outing vs the A's. Look for the Rangers to go Over 3.5 Runs!!
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
MLB Quick Pick
MLB
Pitt Pirates at SD Padres
The quick pick is the Padres scoring less than 3.5 runs today vs Pitt ace Kevin Correia. (4-2, 2.90 ERA). The Pads offense is so bad that their pitchers have been their best hitters this week. Correia is having another fine season and recently shut out the Rockies in Colorado. Correia does a great job of keeping the ball down and making the other team earn their runs--something that the Padres simply cannot do this year. Go with the Pads Under 3.5 Runs!!
Pitt Pirates at SD Padres
The quick pick is the Padres scoring less than 3.5 runs today vs Pitt ace Kevin Correia. (4-2, 2.90 ERA). The Pads offense is so bad that their pitchers have been their best hitters this week. Correia is having another fine season and recently shut out the Rockies in Colorado. Correia does a great job of keeping the ball down and making the other team earn their runs--something that the Padres simply cannot do this year. Go with the Pads Under 3.5 Runs!!
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
MLB Pick of the Day
MLB
Colorado Rockies (-135) at Arizona D-Backs
The first place Rockies (17-9) go visit the fourth place D-Backs (12-15). The Rockies are a major league best 10-3 on the road this season, and will be sending their top pitcher Jorge De La Rosa (4-0, 2.61 ERA) to the mound. The Snakes will counter with soft tossing lefty Joe Saunders (0-3, 5.93 ERA), Saunders has lost all three home starts this season while getting pounded for 28 hits and 15 runs in brief three starts. The Rockies should mash Saunders early and allow De La Rosa to cruise.The Rockies have the superior lineup and bullpen as well. Go with the Rockies!!!
Colorado Rockies (-135) at Arizona D-Backs
The first place Rockies (17-9) go visit the fourth place D-Backs (12-15). The Rockies are a major league best 10-3 on the road this season, and will be sending their top pitcher Jorge De La Rosa (4-0, 2.61 ERA) to the mound. The Snakes will counter with soft tossing lefty Joe Saunders (0-3, 5.93 ERA), Saunders has lost all three home starts this season while getting pounded for 28 hits and 15 runs in brief three starts. The Rockies should mash Saunders early and allow De La Rosa to cruise.The Rockies have the superior lineup and bullpen as well. Go with the Rockies!!!
Monday, May 2, 2011
MLB Pick - Monday
MLB
Chicago Cubs at LA Dodgers (-210) or Dodgers -1.5 at +105 Odds
The Cubs fly in to LA to take on the Dodgers and their ace Clayton Kershaw (2-3, 3.52 ERA). The Cubs will send scrub fifth-starter James Russell (1-3, 8.31 ERA) against the Dodgers. Russell has been obliterated in all three starts this season (19 hits, 3 walks and 12 earned runs). The Cubs are 3-7 in their last ten games and should continue to struggle in LA tonight. The Dodgers should pound the Cubs. Take the Dodgers minus the 1.5 runs!!
**Sorry, I was in Fresno for a friends wedding this past weekend. Congrats to Danny and Natalie! Also, a quick shout out to my buddy Scotty B and his new baby boy, Ethan.
Chicago Cubs at LA Dodgers (-210) or Dodgers -1.5 at +105 Odds
The Cubs fly in to LA to take on the Dodgers and their ace Clayton Kershaw (2-3, 3.52 ERA). The Cubs will send scrub fifth-starter James Russell (1-3, 8.31 ERA) against the Dodgers. Russell has been obliterated in all three starts this season (19 hits, 3 walks and 12 earned runs). The Cubs are 3-7 in their last ten games and should continue to struggle in LA tonight. The Dodgers should pound the Cubs. Take the Dodgers minus the 1.5 runs!!
**Sorry, I was in Fresno for a friends wedding this past weekend. Congrats to Danny and Natalie! Also, a quick shout out to my buddy Scotty B and his new baby boy, Ethan.
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