The Pick of the Day - Friday
Houston Astros at Texas Rangers -1.5 Runs (-135)
The fifth place Astros (27-36) travel across the state to battle the first place Rangers (37-27). The Astros are a putrid 9-22 on the road this year, and will send righty Jordan Lyles (1-2, 5.40 ERA). Lyles is 0-5 with a 5.94 ERA on the road in his career, and allowed 6 earned runs already this year to the Rangers in his only start (5 IP). Darvish (7-4, 3.72 ERA) takes the mound for the Rangers on seven days rest, similar to his Japanese routine. The Rangers have won 16 of the last 21 meetings with Houston and look to continue to dominate the NL (6-3) in interleague play. Go with the Rangers BIG!!
Friday, June 15, 2012
Friday, June 1, 2012
3 MLB Picks - Friday
It's been a while but here are three quality picks for today, June 1st. We will kick off the weekend with three easy games. Good luck fools.
Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals (-165) or -1.5 Runs at +130
Take Strasburg (5-1, 2.64 ERA) and the Nats. Washington is 15-8 at home and riding high in first place in the NL East. The Braves are throwing Minor (2-4, 6.98 ERA), who has allowed 35 earned runs in his last six starts. He stinks. This could get real ugly, go with the Nats to cover the 1.5 runs. If you are nervous, then take it straight up (-165).
Chicago Cubs at SF Giants (-165) or -1.5 Runs at +135
PacBell will be rockin tonight, the G-Men always play well at home (14-11) in front of their sold out crowds. They will be led by starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner (5-4, 3.14 ERA), and have won three of their last four games. The Cubs (18-32) are putrid and are even worse on the road (6-17). To make matters worse for the Cubbies, Paul Maholm (4-3, 4.62 ERA) takes the mound, he's givin up 11 earned runs in his last three starts. Dig deeper: the Cubs are a ML worst 2-9 against lefty starters while SF is 10-5 vs southpaws. Take the Giants at the money line (-165) to be safe.
OVER 9.5 Runs Total - Boston Red Sox at Toronto B.Jays
I absolutely love taking the OVER with Bucholz (4-2, 7.19 ERA) and the Red Sox. For some reason, the Sox give him mad run support. They play the Jays in Toronto, a true hitters park, against the righty Henderson Alvarez (3-4, 3.56 ERA). Alvarez has been hit hard recently, allowing 28 hits and 12 runs in his last three starts. Both of these bullpens have been terrible this season so they shouldn't help either. Take the OVER!!
Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals (-165) or -1.5 Runs at +130
Take Strasburg (5-1, 2.64 ERA) and the Nats. Washington is 15-8 at home and riding high in first place in the NL East. The Braves are throwing Minor (2-4, 6.98 ERA), who has allowed 35 earned runs in his last six starts. He stinks. This could get real ugly, go with the Nats to cover the 1.5 runs. If you are nervous, then take it straight up (-165).
Chicago Cubs at SF Giants (-165) or -1.5 Runs at +135
PacBell will be rockin tonight, the G-Men always play well at home (14-11) in front of their sold out crowds. They will be led by starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner (5-4, 3.14 ERA), and have won three of their last four games. The Cubs (18-32) are putrid and are even worse on the road (6-17). To make matters worse for the Cubbies, Paul Maholm (4-3, 4.62 ERA) takes the mound, he's givin up 11 earned runs in his last three starts. Dig deeper: the Cubs are a ML worst 2-9 against lefty starters while SF is 10-5 vs southpaws. Take the Giants at the money line (-165) to be safe.
OVER 9.5 Runs Total - Boston Red Sox at Toronto B.Jays
I absolutely love taking the OVER with Bucholz (4-2, 7.19 ERA) and the Red Sox. For some reason, the Sox give him mad run support. They play the Jays in Toronto, a true hitters park, against the righty Henderson Alvarez (3-4, 3.56 ERA). Alvarez has been hit hard recently, allowing 28 hits and 12 runs in his last three starts. Both of these bullpens have been terrible this season so they shouldn't help either. Take the OVER!!
Monday, April 23, 2012
NL MLB Preview 2012
NL MLB Preview 2012
NL West
1. Arizona D-Backs - Kirk Gibson is one heck of a manager. His staff has developed their young players way faster than anyone could have imagined, leading them to the NL West title last year. The Snakes are young and talented. I'm a big fan of OFs Justin Upton and Chris Young. Their bullpen is solid, but SS Stephen Drew will be the key--he has to live up to the hype and stay healthy.
2. LA Dodgers - MVP Matt Kemp is the best, yeah I know that Braun won the honors last year but Kemp is the true MVP. The guy is unreal. Ethier must stay in the lineup and be productive, his wrist injury was devastating last season. I would love the new management to add another quality bat before the trade deadline. Their pitching worries me. Kershaw is dominant, but the rest of the staff is old and potentially fatal.
3. SF Giants - Love the pitching, hate the hitting. Same motto as last year. The hitting has to be better, I like the addition of OF Melky Cabrera. Brandon Belt needs to be a factor, and Bochy must give him the ABs. Look for Matt Cain to dominate. The bullpen will probably decide their fate, and not having Brian Wilson will cost them.
4. Colorado Rockies - I have turned sour on the Rocks. Injuries just seem to surround them every year. Carlos Gonzalez has all the skills to be the next great NL player if he could ever stay in the lineup. There are serious pitching issues here. When old man Jaime Moyer is your #2 starter, you are in serious trouble. They traded away Ubaldo Jimenez last year and lack pitching depth. They are really the only team in the division that can't pitch well, so they must score a lot of runs. Yikes!
5. SD Padres - I would rank them lower if I could but there's only five teams in the division. What can you say about the team with the lowest payroll in MLB? They don't try to win games, and run their franchise like a business--just to make as much money as possible for their ownership which has been a disaster for a long time. They are rebuilding again, and trade away their best player practically every year. They don't know what they are doing and don't seem to care.
NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals - Remember these guys. They won the World Series last year over the Rangers. They lost Albert Pujols but added OF Carlos Beltran, and Beltran is great when he plays. The injury worries don't stop there. Pitchers Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright both have had health problems and first baseman Lance Berkman is old and is always banged up. David Freese is a rising slugger, watch him crush this year.
2. Milwaukee Brewers - Is it just me or does their lineup appear overly impressive? I really cannot solve this team, they seem like they should be better every year, but never put it all together. Pitchers Greinke and Marcum will be free agents at the end of the season and should have big seasons. Gallardo is an ace and Axford was tremendous last year. Where are all the victories? The heart of the order (Braun, Aramis Ramirez, Hart) all need to have big years for the Brew Crew to reach the postseason.
3. Cincy Reds - Oh, Dusty Baker. This guy doesn't really get it. I don't like their pitching or defense. Their two best pitchers are in the bullpen. They need Chapman to be more involved. He should be a starter. Their hitters strike out way too much, especially for that generous ballpark. Votto is obviously great, but who hits behind him?
4-6. Chicago Cubs, Pitt Pirates and Houston Astros. Bury these teams now. Three teams with no prayer of a winning season, let alone the playoffs. The Cubs are probably the most dissapointing out of the three, but they have no talent at all outside of SS Starlin Castro. The Pirates are always terrible, but at least they seem to be trying hard every year, and I can respect that. The Astros are rebuilding big time and it will take some time-- so be patient. I can appreciate their drastic changes, they basically gutted the whole franchise and started over.
NL East
1. Atlanta Braves - These guys overachieve nearly every year. I like their veteran leadership. Their bullpen is fantastic and will be key down the stretch. Venters and Kimbrel are easily overlooked, but don't make that mistake. Is this the year that OF Jason Heyward becomes the man in Atlanta? The Braves hope so.
2. Philly Phillies - No Ryan Howard and no Chase Utley. This lineup is old and seriously lacks power. It will be difficult for them to score runs all year long. Utley is no longer that great second baseman that you remember from a few years ago. Howard's achilles injury was bad and he could be out for most of the season, or come back at less than 100%. Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee aren't young and have thrown a lot of innings over the past few seasons. There are too many question marks this season for the Phils.
3. Miami Marlins - Ozzie Guillen will have his hands full this year in Miami. I really like the direction that the Marlins are headed. Mike Stanton is a physical specimen, watch him take batting practice, best BP hitter in baseball. He will hit bombs even though their new ballpark is gigantic. I think that it will take one more year for Guillen to get these guys all on the same page. Josh Johnson should also be better next year after missing most of past few seasons with arm problems, he sets the tone for their staff.
4. Washington Nats - This is the true wildcard team in the NL. Their pitching is very talented and has a lot of upside. I love their young power arms. Strasburg is special, but closer Drew Storen is on the DL for at least half the year and Brad Lidge cannot close games if they want to be taken seriously. Zimmerman is their only real threat on offense, that's not a good sign. It will take a couple more years and a couple more bats for them to contend.
5. NY Mets - Not a good team. I really wonder if they trade 3B David Wright this year. They probably need to trade him in order to rebuild their franchise. I can easily envision a deal to the Angels for a large package of top prospects. If they are smart, then they will do it and ignore the NY media pressure. They are looking at a 3-5 year rebuilding process. Cross them off the list.
Wildcard: LA Dodgers over Milwaukee Brewers
NLDS: St. Louis Cards over LA Dodgers 4-2, and Arizona D-Backs over Atlanta Braves 4-3
NLCS: St. Louis Cards over Arizona D-Backs 4-1
NL West
1. Arizona D-Backs - Kirk Gibson is one heck of a manager. His staff has developed their young players way faster than anyone could have imagined, leading them to the NL West title last year. The Snakes are young and talented. I'm a big fan of OFs Justin Upton and Chris Young. Their bullpen is solid, but SS Stephen Drew will be the key--he has to live up to the hype and stay healthy.
2. LA Dodgers - MVP Matt Kemp is the best, yeah I know that Braun won the honors last year but Kemp is the true MVP. The guy is unreal. Ethier must stay in the lineup and be productive, his wrist injury was devastating last season. I would love the new management to add another quality bat before the trade deadline. Their pitching worries me. Kershaw is dominant, but the rest of the staff is old and potentially fatal.
3. SF Giants - Love the pitching, hate the hitting. Same motto as last year. The hitting has to be better, I like the addition of OF Melky Cabrera. Brandon Belt needs to be a factor, and Bochy must give him the ABs. Look for Matt Cain to dominate. The bullpen will probably decide their fate, and not having Brian Wilson will cost them.
4. Colorado Rockies - I have turned sour on the Rocks. Injuries just seem to surround them every year. Carlos Gonzalez has all the skills to be the next great NL player if he could ever stay in the lineup. There are serious pitching issues here. When old man Jaime Moyer is your #2 starter, you are in serious trouble. They traded away Ubaldo Jimenez last year and lack pitching depth. They are really the only team in the division that can't pitch well, so they must score a lot of runs. Yikes!
5. SD Padres - I would rank them lower if I could but there's only five teams in the division. What can you say about the team with the lowest payroll in MLB? They don't try to win games, and run their franchise like a business--just to make as much money as possible for their ownership which has been a disaster for a long time. They are rebuilding again, and trade away their best player practically every year. They don't know what they are doing and don't seem to care.
NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals - Remember these guys. They won the World Series last year over the Rangers. They lost Albert Pujols but added OF Carlos Beltran, and Beltran is great when he plays. The injury worries don't stop there. Pitchers Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright both have had health problems and first baseman Lance Berkman is old and is always banged up. David Freese is a rising slugger, watch him crush this year.
2. Milwaukee Brewers - Is it just me or does their lineup appear overly impressive? I really cannot solve this team, they seem like they should be better every year, but never put it all together. Pitchers Greinke and Marcum will be free agents at the end of the season and should have big seasons. Gallardo is an ace and Axford was tremendous last year. Where are all the victories? The heart of the order (Braun, Aramis Ramirez, Hart) all need to have big years for the Brew Crew to reach the postseason.
3. Cincy Reds - Oh, Dusty Baker. This guy doesn't really get it. I don't like their pitching or defense. Their two best pitchers are in the bullpen. They need Chapman to be more involved. He should be a starter. Their hitters strike out way too much, especially for that generous ballpark. Votto is obviously great, but who hits behind him?
4-6. Chicago Cubs, Pitt Pirates and Houston Astros. Bury these teams now. Three teams with no prayer of a winning season, let alone the playoffs. The Cubs are probably the most dissapointing out of the three, but they have no talent at all outside of SS Starlin Castro. The Pirates are always terrible, but at least they seem to be trying hard every year, and I can respect that. The Astros are rebuilding big time and it will take some time-- so be patient. I can appreciate their drastic changes, they basically gutted the whole franchise and started over.
NL East
1. Atlanta Braves - These guys overachieve nearly every year. I like their veteran leadership. Their bullpen is fantastic and will be key down the stretch. Venters and Kimbrel are easily overlooked, but don't make that mistake. Is this the year that OF Jason Heyward becomes the man in Atlanta? The Braves hope so.
2. Philly Phillies - No Ryan Howard and no Chase Utley. This lineup is old and seriously lacks power. It will be difficult for them to score runs all year long. Utley is no longer that great second baseman that you remember from a few years ago. Howard's achilles injury was bad and he could be out for most of the season, or come back at less than 100%. Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee aren't young and have thrown a lot of innings over the past few seasons. There are too many question marks this season for the Phils.
3. Miami Marlins - Ozzie Guillen will have his hands full this year in Miami. I really like the direction that the Marlins are headed. Mike Stanton is a physical specimen, watch him take batting practice, best BP hitter in baseball. He will hit bombs even though their new ballpark is gigantic. I think that it will take one more year for Guillen to get these guys all on the same page. Josh Johnson should also be better next year after missing most of past few seasons with arm problems, he sets the tone for their staff.
4. Washington Nats - This is the true wildcard team in the NL. Their pitching is very talented and has a lot of upside. I love their young power arms. Strasburg is special, but closer Drew Storen is on the DL for at least half the year and Brad Lidge cannot close games if they want to be taken seriously. Zimmerman is their only real threat on offense, that's not a good sign. It will take a couple more years and a couple more bats for them to contend.
5. NY Mets - Not a good team. I really wonder if they trade 3B David Wright this year. They probably need to trade him in order to rebuild their franchise. I can easily envision a deal to the Angels for a large package of top prospects. If they are smart, then they will do it and ignore the NY media pressure. They are looking at a 3-5 year rebuilding process. Cross them off the list.
Wildcard: LA Dodgers over Milwaukee Brewers
NLDS: St. Louis Cards over LA Dodgers 4-2, and Arizona D-Backs over Atlanta Braves 4-3
NLCS: St. Louis Cards over Arizona D-Backs 4-1
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
MLB 2012 AL Predictions
MLB 2012 AL Predictions
AL West
1. LA Angels - Pujols does make that big of a difference. Watch for Howie Kendrick and Erick Aybar to break out. The return of Morales and Walden's ability to close will be crucial.
2. Texas Rangers - So much talent, but so many guys will be free agents at the end of the season. Hopefully Ron Washington can keep the club focused on winning and not their next pay check. Excited to see Yu Darvish be all that he can be. He's already the ace of the staff, could be Cy Young if all goes well.
3. Seattle Mariners - Yes, their offense sucks but 2B Dustin Ackley can rake. Write it down. He will lead this team out of the cellar. I just hope that they don't trade away Felix at the trade deadline, he's special and they will need him if they ever want to compete. This could be Ichiro's last year in MLB if he decides to return to Japan at season's end.
4. Oakland A's - These guys surrendered in the offseason when they dealt away pitchers Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill for prospects (again). Their lineup is putrid, Coco Crisp hits third, ewww. I like OF Yoenis Cespedes but he has no help at all. This team has no talent and play in the best division in baseball. Good luck fools.
AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers - You try facing Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder back-to-back and see how many baseballs leave the park. They are young and can bash. They will need Boesch and Young to succeed in order to see good pitches. I believe that they will. Verlander only won the Cy Young and MVP last year---amazing.
2. KC Royals - The new-look Royals can score runs. They will score and compete this year. Gordon and Hosmer will blossum into household names. If they had any pitching at all there would be a lot more hype surrounding them. Losing Soria also won't help their bullpen which is always important.
3. Cleveland Indians - Grady Sizemore is out again. Their lineup is led by SS Azdrubal Cabrera, not a good sign for the Tribe. I like Masterson and underrated closer Chris Perez. If Ubaldo Jimenez can find his stuff of 2010 then they will contend for second place. Catcher/DH/1B Carlos Santana looks great in BP but needs to hit over .239 this year.
4. Minnesota Twins - Is there a more injury prone team than the Twins? Mauer, Morneau and Liriano seem to get hurt every year. I think that they bounce back this year and could easily finish right behind the Tigers. The addition of Willingham in left field will pay dividends, at least they signed him after losing Cuddyer and Kubel.
5. Chicago White Sox - New Manager Robin Ventura will remember two things from baseball....managing is easier from the stands and never charge the mound on Nolan Ryan. Ventura will have a rude awakening this year. The Sox dealt away closer Sergio Santos and will try Matt Thornton again. That spells Rolaids.
AL East
1. NY Yankees - They will score runs against anyone. Cano is unreal, but I wish that they would hit Gardner in the leadoff spot. Gardner adds a special dimension (speed) to the Yanks and they need to realize that before it is too late. Maybe an injury to Jeter will force Girardi's hand. Also, watch for the Yanks to deal if they need to add another piece in order to make a run in postseason.
2. TB Rays - Evan Longoria needs to step it up this season. He is their leader and their offense depends on him to produce. I think that he's due. I like bringing back Carlos Pena at first but he needs to stop strinking out so much. It will be a treat to see OF Desomnd Jennings and pitcher Matt Moore develop this year. The Rays have stock piled so much talent.
3. Toronto Blue Jays - That's right, the Jays will finish ahead of the BoSox. The Jays could probably battle for the NL crown if they were in the NL East instead. Gotta give the Jays credit for continuously rebuilding and adding young stars (Lawrie, Morrow, Rasmus). Romero has developed well and secretly has nasty stuff.
4. Boston Red Sox - Their pitching is a mess. I mean, it's really bad, across the board. Their new closer Andrew Bailey will have thumb surgery and will already miss half the season. So Mark Melancon will probably close now, he hardly held down the Astros closing duties last season. OF Carl Crawford is hurt again and will miss a month as well. This team will be in trouble and the Boston faithful has never been bashful about letting their sports teams know how they feel. Trouble is brewing.
5. Baltimore Orioles - Bad Pitching and Poor Hitting will put any team in the basement. The future still isn't bright in Baltimore, these guys do NOT scout well. Their picks are in the top ten every year and they never find players. Truly pathetic. Buck Showwalter tries hard but never really has a chance. Always next year Buck.
Wild Card - Texas over Rays
ALDS - Angels over Yankees 4-1 and Texas over Tigers 4-3
ALCS - Angels over Rangers 4-2
AL West
1. LA Angels - Pujols does make that big of a difference. Watch for Howie Kendrick and Erick Aybar to break out. The return of Morales and Walden's ability to close will be crucial.
2. Texas Rangers - So much talent, but so many guys will be free agents at the end of the season. Hopefully Ron Washington can keep the club focused on winning and not their next pay check. Excited to see Yu Darvish be all that he can be. He's already the ace of the staff, could be Cy Young if all goes well.
3. Seattle Mariners - Yes, their offense sucks but 2B Dustin Ackley can rake. Write it down. He will lead this team out of the cellar. I just hope that they don't trade away Felix at the trade deadline, he's special and they will need him if they ever want to compete. This could be Ichiro's last year in MLB if he decides to return to Japan at season's end.
4. Oakland A's - These guys surrendered in the offseason when they dealt away pitchers Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill for prospects (again). Their lineup is putrid, Coco Crisp hits third, ewww. I like OF Yoenis Cespedes but he has no help at all. This team has no talent and play in the best division in baseball. Good luck fools.
AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers - You try facing Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder back-to-back and see how many baseballs leave the park. They are young and can bash. They will need Boesch and Young to succeed in order to see good pitches. I believe that they will. Verlander only won the Cy Young and MVP last year---amazing.
2. KC Royals - The new-look Royals can score runs. They will score and compete this year. Gordon and Hosmer will blossum into household names. If they had any pitching at all there would be a lot more hype surrounding them. Losing Soria also won't help their bullpen which is always important.
3. Cleveland Indians - Grady Sizemore is out again. Their lineup is led by SS Azdrubal Cabrera, not a good sign for the Tribe. I like Masterson and underrated closer Chris Perez. If Ubaldo Jimenez can find his stuff of 2010 then they will contend for second place. Catcher/DH/1B Carlos Santana looks great in BP but needs to hit over .239 this year.
4. Minnesota Twins - Is there a more injury prone team than the Twins? Mauer, Morneau and Liriano seem to get hurt every year. I think that they bounce back this year and could easily finish right behind the Tigers. The addition of Willingham in left field will pay dividends, at least they signed him after losing Cuddyer and Kubel.
5. Chicago White Sox - New Manager Robin Ventura will remember two things from baseball....managing is easier from the stands and never charge the mound on Nolan Ryan. Ventura will have a rude awakening this year. The Sox dealt away closer Sergio Santos and will try Matt Thornton again. That spells Rolaids.
AL East
1. NY Yankees - They will score runs against anyone. Cano is unreal, but I wish that they would hit Gardner in the leadoff spot. Gardner adds a special dimension (speed) to the Yanks and they need to realize that before it is too late. Maybe an injury to Jeter will force Girardi's hand. Also, watch for the Yanks to deal if they need to add another piece in order to make a run in postseason.
2. TB Rays - Evan Longoria needs to step it up this season. He is their leader and their offense depends on him to produce. I think that he's due. I like bringing back Carlos Pena at first but he needs to stop strinking out so much. It will be a treat to see OF Desomnd Jennings and pitcher Matt Moore develop this year. The Rays have stock piled so much talent.
3. Toronto Blue Jays - That's right, the Jays will finish ahead of the BoSox. The Jays could probably battle for the NL crown if they were in the NL East instead. Gotta give the Jays credit for continuously rebuilding and adding young stars (Lawrie, Morrow, Rasmus). Romero has developed well and secretly has nasty stuff.
4. Boston Red Sox - Their pitching is a mess. I mean, it's really bad, across the board. Their new closer Andrew Bailey will have thumb surgery and will already miss half the season. So Mark Melancon will probably close now, he hardly held down the Astros closing duties last season. OF Carl Crawford is hurt again and will miss a month as well. This team will be in trouble and the Boston faithful has never been bashful about letting their sports teams know how they feel. Trouble is brewing.
5. Baltimore Orioles - Bad Pitching and Poor Hitting will put any team in the basement. The future still isn't bright in Baltimore, these guys do NOT scout well. Their picks are in the top ten every year and they never find players. Truly pathetic. Buck Showwalter tries hard but never really has a chance. Always next year Buck.
Wild Card - Texas over Rays
ALDS - Angels over Yankees 4-1 and Texas over Tigers 4-3
ALCS - Angels over Rangers 4-2
Sunday, February 5, 2012
Super Bowl or Bust!
Super Bowl or Bust!!!
NY Giants vs NE Patriots (-3) - Over/Under 53
So I wrote this long detailed two page breakdown yesterday and thought that I posted it.......but it never posted and so now I have jack shit for you (except this short breakdown, it's alll that you will need).
Summary points:
NY Giants are a better team
NY Giants are playing better football
NE Patriots' most valuable weapon, TE Rob Gronkowski is seriously injured and wouldn't be playing in any other game except for the Super Bowl. He is the key, and I don't think he is truely ready and the Giants will know this and try to jam him at the line.
Tom Brady has become a check down QB because he has NO deep weapons.
The NY Giants' pass rush is the best four-man group in football, and they will bring it today.
JPP is a beast, be careful TBrady, be real careful.
NY Giants should be able to run outside with RB Bradshaw and then abuse the Patriots with play-action passes.
I hate Eli Manning, but the jackass has been playing his best football and should have no problem with the vulnerable NE secondary.
Conclusion: There is no way that this line should be 3 points and the bookies know it, but cannot change the line because of the amount of hedging that would occur if people could take the Giants plus 3 then the Patriots -2. It would be absolutely disastrous for VEGAS. They made this line as if both teams were playing at full strength. The Pats have the revenge factor and I can see them winning late, but nothing justifies the FG spread. Nothing. TAKE THE GIANTS plus the points and take them asap, better yet bet your friends and play without the juice (10-15%). Why should the bookies get the free cash when people will take both sides in a large degree. So that's it---GIANTS!!
The Over/Under is really a toss up and nobody wants to see a low-scoring game, so I advise to avoid it. Good Luck and go G-Men!!
NY Giants vs NE Patriots (-3) - Over/Under 53
So I wrote this long detailed two page breakdown yesterday and thought that I posted it.......but it never posted and so now I have jack shit for you (except this short breakdown, it's alll that you will need).
Summary points:
NY Giants are a better team
NY Giants are playing better football
NE Patriots' most valuable weapon, TE Rob Gronkowski is seriously injured and wouldn't be playing in any other game except for the Super Bowl. He is the key, and I don't think he is truely ready and the Giants will know this and try to jam him at the line.
Tom Brady has become a check down QB because he has NO deep weapons.
The NY Giants' pass rush is the best four-man group in football, and they will bring it today.
JPP is a beast, be careful TBrady, be real careful.
NY Giants should be able to run outside with RB Bradshaw and then abuse the Patriots with play-action passes.
I hate Eli Manning, but the jackass has been playing his best football and should have no problem with the vulnerable NE secondary.
Conclusion: There is no way that this line should be 3 points and the bookies know it, but cannot change the line because of the amount of hedging that would occur if people could take the Giants plus 3 then the Patriots -2. It would be absolutely disastrous for VEGAS. They made this line as if both teams were playing at full strength. The Pats have the revenge factor and I can see them winning late, but nothing justifies the FG spread. Nothing. TAKE THE GIANTS plus the points and take them asap, better yet bet your friends and play without the juice (10-15%). Why should the bookies get the free cash when people will take both sides in a large degree. So that's it---GIANTS!!
The Over/Under is really a toss up and nobody wants to see a low-scoring game, so I advise to avoid it. Good Luck and go G-Men!!
Sunday, January 22, 2012
NFL Conference Title Games
AFC Title Game 12pm - Baltimore Ravens at NE Patriots (-7) Over/Under 50
This game has been inevitable since Big Ben went down with that ugly foot injury while playing the Browns in week 13. Baltimore clearly was the beneficiary of the Steelers' misery and rode that to the #2 seed in the AFC. The Ravens took care of the Texans last weekend 20-13, but really looked terrible in the process (only 227 total yards). QB Joe Flacco simply isn't good enough and I honestly hate their play calling, yes I'm looking at you OC Cam Cameron! Another problem that I have with them is that---the Ravens suck on the road. Baltimore lost at Seattle, San Diego, Tennessee and Jacksonville this season. You simply cannot trust them.
The Patriots pounded the Denver Broncos 45-10 last Saturday, shredding the Broncos threw the air for 363 yards and 6 TD passes from Brady. The Ravens play much tougher defense and have held Brady to a 71.4 passer rating in his five games against them throughout his career. That's definite cause for concern, but these Patriots feature more weapons than those other teams. TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez have been unstoppable this season and the Ravens don't match up well against tight ends. The Raven's linebackers are great against the run, but won't be quick enough to stop the versatile Patriot TEs. Bill Belicheck is too smart and Tom Brady is too good to lose this game.
Go with the Patriots minus the points!!
NFC Title Game 3:30 pm - NY Giants at SF 49ers (-2.5) Over/Under 42
Get ready for a defensive smackdown. This game looks like it will shape up to be an old school 80's style showdown. The 49ers allowed an average of 10.8 points a game this year at home, and will be playing with a lot of emotion trying to reach their first Super Bowl since 1994. I really think that they will dial down the game plan and keep things simple for QB Alex Smith. We all saw what a weapon TE Vernon Davis has become and he will be the key to the SF offense again this week. SF Coach Jim Harbaugh was the best in the NFL this year but will be facing his toughest test all year this weekend. He will find ways to get Davis the ball in space. I'd like to see him use RB Kendall Hunter more, and I think we will see him more involved (my personal sleeper). He is a underrated playmaker with speed, watch him.
Nobody has played better football in the last month than the NY Football Giants. Their defense has been ridiculously good, allowing just 12 points a game over the past four contests. They have also managed to accumulate 17 sacks over that span, including four last week in their 37-20 beatdown of the Packers. Aaron Rodgers was consistently scrambling and never got comfortable in the pocket. The Giants should have no problem getting to Smith on Sunday. The only way that the Giants lose this game is if the 49ers turn the game on special teams with big plays.
Let's double-down on the Giants and the Under!!
This game has been inevitable since Big Ben went down with that ugly foot injury while playing the Browns in week 13. Baltimore clearly was the beneficiary of the Steelers' misery and rode that to the #2 seed in the AFC. The Ravens took care of the Texans last weekend 20-13, but really looked terrible in the process (only 227 total yards). QB Joe Flacco simply isn't good enough and I honestly hate their play calling, yes I'm looking at you OC Cam Cameron! Another problem that I have with them is that---the Ravens suck on the road. Baltimore lost at Seattle, San Diego, Tennessee and Jacksonville this season. You simply cannot trust them.
The Patriots pounded the Denver Broncos 45-10 last Saturday, shredding the Broncos threw the air for 363 yards and 6 TD passes from Brady. The Ravens play much tougher defense and have held Brady to a 71.4 passer rating in his five games against them throughout his career. That's definite cause for concern, but these Patriots feature more weapons than those other teams. TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez have been unstoppable this season and the Ravens don't match up well against tight ends. The Raven's linebackers are great against the run, but won't be quick enough to stop the versatile Patriot TEs. Bill Belicheck is too smart and Tom Brady is too good to lose this game.
Go with the Patriots minus the points!!
NFC Title Game 3:30 pm - NY Giants at SF 49ers (-2.5) Over/Under 42
Get ready for a defensive smackdown. This game looks like it will shape up to be an old school 80's style showdown. The 49ers allowed an average of 10.8 points a game this year at home, and will be playing with a lot of emotion trying to reach their first Super Bowl since 1994. I really think that they will dial down the game plan and keep things simple for QB Alex Smith. We all saw what a weapon TE Vernon Davis has become and he will be the key to the SF offense again this week. SF Coach Jim Harbaugh was the best in the NFL this year but will be facing his toughest test all year this weekend. He will find ways to get Davis the ball in space. I'd like to see him use RB Kendall Hunter more, and I think we will see him more involved (my personal sleeper). He is a underrated playmaker with speed, watch him.
Nobody has played better football in the last month than the NY Football Giants. Their defense has been ridiculously good, allowing just 12 points a game over the past four contests. They have also managed to accumulate 17 sacks over that span, including four last week in their 37-20 beatdown of the Packers. Aaron Rodgers was consistently scrambling and never got comfortable in the pocket. The Giants should have no problem getting to Smith on Sunday. The only way that the Giants lose this game is if the 49ers turn the game on special teams with big plays.
Let's double-down on the Giants and the Under!!
Sunday, January 15, 2012
NY Giants at GB Packers
NY Giants at GB Packers (-7.5) Over/Under 53
Sorry but this has to be quick, so let's get down to it.
The G-Men look to avenge Week 12 Loss to the Packers (38-35) after dominating the Atlanta Falcons at home last week 24-2. Fact: The Giants have been balling on defense during the last three weeks against good teams (Jets, Cowboys, Falcons) and seem to be playing their best football of the season. They will need to "bring it" against the Champion Packers in Green Bay today. Fact: The Packers are the Best Team in the NFL, and will have stud WR Greg Jennings back in the starting lineup. Fact: The Packers are playing at home, where they won every game this season---by an average of 19 points. Fact: The Giants weakness resides in their secondary. Fact: Nobody can stop the Packer passing attack (Ok, maybe KC did it for 3 quarters during the Packers only loss this season). Fact: The Packers Defense is relatively soft and allowed the most passing yards in the NFL this season (299.8 yards/game). Watch for the Packers to take advantage of Eli Manning mistakes and lapses in NYG deep zone pass coverages to dictate the tempo and force the G-Men to play catch up in the second half.
Decision: The Packers will top the Giants in a high scoring game.
Lock of the Day: Take the OVER 53!!
Sorry but this has to be quick, so let's get down to it.
The G-Men look to avenge Week 12 Loss to the Packers (38-35) after dominating the Atlanta Falcons at home last week 24-2. Fact: The Giants have been balling on defense during the last three weeks against good teams (Jets, Cowboys, Falcons) and seem to be playing their best football of the season. They will need to "bring it" against the Champion Packers in Green Bay today. Fact: The Packers are the Best Team in the NFL, and will have stud WR Greg Jennings back in the starting lineup. Fact: The Packers are playing at home, where they won every game this season---by an average of 19 points. Fact: The Giants weakness resides in their secondary. Fact: Nobody can stop the Packer passing attack (Ok, maybe KC did it for 3 quarters during the Packers only loss this season). Fact: The Packers Defense is relatively soft and allowed the most passing yards in the NFL this season (299.8 yards/game). Watch for the Packers to take advantage of Eli Manning mistakes and lapses in NYG deep zone pass coverages to dictate the tempo and force the G-Men to play catch up in the second half.
Decision: The Packers will top the Giants in a high scoring game.
Lock of the Day: Take the OVER 53!!
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