Super Bowl or Bust!!!
NY Giants vs NE Patriots (-3) - Over/Under 53
So I wrote this long detailed two page breakdown yesterday and thought that I posted it.......but it never posted and so now I have jack shit for you (except this short breakdown, it's alll that you will need).
Summary points:
NY Giants are a better team
NY Giants are playing better football
NE Patriots' most valuable weapon, TE Rob Gronkowski is seriously injured and wouldn't be playing in any other game except for the Super Bowl. He is the key, and I don't think he is truely ready and the Giants will know this and try to jam him at the line.
Tom Brady has become a check down QB because he has NO deep weapons.
The NY Giants' pass rush is the best four-man group in football, and they will bring it today.
JPP is a beast, be careful TBrady, be real careful.
NY Giants should be able to run outside with RB Bradshaw and then abuse the Patriots with play-action passes.
I hate Eli Manning, but the jackass has been playing his best football and should have no problem with the vulnerable NE secondary.
Conclusion: There is no way that this line should be 3 points and the bookies know it, but cannot change the line because of the amount of hedging that would occur if people could take the Giants plus 3 then the Patriots -2. It would be absolutely disastrous for VEGAS. They made this line as if both teams were playing at full strength. The Pats have the revenge factor and I can see them winning late, but nothing justifies the FG spread. Nothing. TAKE THE GIANTS plus the points and take them asap, better yet bet your friends and play without the juice (10-15%). Why should the bookies get the free cash when people will take both sides in a large degree. So that's it---GIANTS!!
The Over/Under is really a toss up and nobody wants to see a low-scoring game, so I advise to avoid it. Good Luck and go G-Men!!
Sunday, February 5, 2012
Sunday, January 22, 2012
NFL Conference Title Games
AFC Title Game 12pm - Baltimore Ravens at NE Patriots (-7) Over/Under 50
This game has been inevitable since Big Ben went down with that ugly foot injury while playing the Browns in week 13. Baltimore clearly was the beneficiary of the Steelers' misery and rode that to the #2 seed in the AFC. The Ravens took care of the Texans last weekend 20-13, but really looked terrible in the process (only 227 total yards). QB Joe Flacco simply isn't good enough and I honestly hate their play calling, yes I'm looking at you OC Cam Cameron! Another problem that I have with them is that---the Ravens suck on the road. Baltimore lost at Seattle, San Diego, Tennessee and Jacksonville this season. You simply cannot trust them.
The Patriots pounded the Denver Broncos 45-10 last Saturday, shredding the Broncos threw the air for 363 yards and 6 TD passes from Brady. The Ravens play much tougher defense and have held Brady to a 71.4 passer rating in his five games against them throughout his career. That's definite cause for concern, but these Patriots feature more weapons than those other teams. TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez have been unstoppable this season and the Ravens don't match up well against tight ends. The Raven's linebackers are great against the run, but won't be quick enough to stop the versatile Patriot TEs. Bill Belicheck is too smart and Tom Brady is too good to lose this game.
Go with the Patriots minus the points!!
NFC Title Game 3:30 pm - NY Giants at SF 49ers (-2.5) Over/Under 42
Get ready for a defensive smackdown. This game looks like it will shape up to be an old school 80's style showdown. The 49ers allowed an average of 10.8 points a game this year at home, and will be playing with a lot of emotion trying to reach their first Super Bowl since 1994. I really think that they will dial down the game plan and keep things simple for QB Alex Smith. We all saw what a weapon TE Vernon Davis has become and he will be the key to the SF offense again this week. SF Coach Jim Harbaugh was the best in the NFL this year but will be facing his toughest test all year this weekend. He will find ways to get Davis the ball in space. I'd like to see him use RB Kendall Hunter more, and I think we will see him more involved (my personal sleeper). He is a underrated playmaker with speed, watch him.
Nobody has played better football in the last month than the NY Football Giants. Their defense has been ridiculously good, allowing just 12 points a game over the past four contests. They have also managed to accumulate 17 sacks over that span, including four last week in their 37-20 beatdown of the Packers. Aaron Rodgers was consistently scrambling and never got comfortable in the pocket. The Giants should have no problem getting to Smith on Sunday. The only way that the Giants lose this game is if the 49ers turn the game on special teams with big plays.
Let's double-down on the Giants and the Under!!
This game has been inevitable since Big Ben went down with that ugly foot injury while playing the Browns in week 13. Baltimore clearly was the beneficiary of the Steelers' misery and rode that to the #2 seed in the AFC. The Ravens took care of the Texans last weekend 20-13, but really looked terrible in the process (only 227 total yards). QB Joe Flacco simply isn't good enough and I honestly hate their play calling, yes I'm looking at you OC Cam Cameron! Another problem that I have with them is that---the Ravens suck on the road. Baltimore lost at Seattle, San Diego, Tennessee and Jacksonville this season. You simply cannot trust them.
The Patriots pounded the Denver Broncos 45-10 last Saturday, shredding the Broncos threw the air for 363 yards and 6 TD passes from Brady. The Ravens play much tougher defense and have held Brady to a 71.4 passer rating in his five games against them throughout his career. That's definite cause for concern, but these Patriots feature more weapons than those other teams. TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez have been unstoppable this season and the Ravens don't match up well against tight ends. The Raven's linebackers are great against the run, but won't be quick enough to stop the versatile Patriot TEs. Bill Belicheck is too smart and Tom Brady is too good to lose this game.
Go with the Patriots minus the points!!
NFC Title Game 3:30 pm - NY Giants at SF 49ers (-2.5) Over/Under 42
Get ready for a defensive smackdown. This game looks like it will shape up to be an old school 80's style showdown. The 49ers allowed an average of 10.8 points a game this year at home, and will be playing with a lot of emotion trying to reach their first Super Bowl since 1994. I really think that they will dial down the game plan and keep things simple for QB Alex Smith. We all saw what a weapon TE Vernon Davis has become and he will be the key to the SF offense again this week. SF Coach Jim Harbaugh was the best in the NFL this year but will be facing his toughest test all year this weekend. He will find ways to get Davis the ball in space. I'd like to see him use RB Kendall Hunter more, and I think we will see him more involved (my personal sleeper). He is a underrated playmaker with speed, watch him.
Nobody has played better football in the last month than the NY Football Giants. Their defense has been ridiculously good, allowing just 12 points a game over the past four contests. They have also managed to accumulate 17 sacks over that span, including four last week in their 37-20 beatdown of the Packers. Aaron Rodgers was consistently scrambling and never got comfortable in the pocket. The Giants should have no problem getting to Smith on Sunday. The only way that the Giants lose this game is if the 49ers turn the game on special teams with big plays.
Let's double-down on the Giants and the Under!!
Sunday, January 15, 2012
NY Giants at GB Packers
NY Giants at GB Packers (-7.5) Over/Under 53
Sorry but this has to be quick, so let's get down to it.
The G-Men look to avenge Week 12 Loss to the Packers (38-35) after dominating the Atlanta Falcons at home last week 24-2. Fact: The Giants have been balling on defense during the last three weeks against good teams (Jets, Cowboys, Falcons) and seem to be playing their best football of the season. They will need to "bring it" against the Champion Packers in Green Bay today. Fact: The Packers are the Best Team in the NFL, and will have stud WR Greg Jennings back in the starting lineup. Fact: The Packers are playing at home, where they won every game this season---by an average of 19 points. Fact: The Giants weakness resides in their secondary. Fact: Nobody can stop the Packer passing attack (Ok, maybe KC did it for 3 quarters during the Packers only loss this season). Fact: The Packers Defense is relatively soft and allowed the most passing yards in the NFL this season (299.8 yards/game). Watch for the Packers to take advantage of Eli Manning mistakes and lapses in NYG deep zone pass coverages to dictate the tempo and force the G-Men to play catch up in the second half.
Decision: The Packers will top the Giants in a high scoring game.
Lock of the Day: Take the OVER 53!!
Sorry but this has to be quick, so let's get down to it.
The G-Men look to avenge Week 12 Loss to the Packers (38-35) after dominating the Atlanta Falcons at home last week 24-2. Fact: The Giants have been balling on defense during the last three weeks against good teams (Jets, Cowboys, Falcons) and seem to be playing their best football of the season. They will need to "bring it" against the Champion Packers in Green Bay today. Fact: The Packers are the Best Team in the NFL, and will have stud WR Greg Jennings back in the starting lineup. Fact: The Packers are playing at home, where they won every game this season---by an average of 19 points. Fact: The Giants weakness resides in their secondary. Fact: Nobody can stop the Packer passing attack (Ok, maybe KC did it for 3 quarters during the Packers only loss this season). Fact: The Packers Defense is relatively soft and allowed the most passing yards in the NFL this season (299.8 yards/game). Watch for the Packers to take advantage of Eli Manning mistakes and lapses in NYG deep zone pass coverages to dictate the tempo and force the G-Men to play catch up in the second half.
Decision: The Packers will top the Giants in a high scoring game.
Lock of the Day: Take the OVER 53!!
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
NFL First Glance - Week 15
First Glance at the NFL Primetime Lines
1. Let's start with the Thursday Night game--Jax Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons (-11) Over/Under 42.
This game kind of reminds me of the MNF game last night, Rams at Seahawks. Terrible team goes on the road in primetime to get obliterated against a much better opponent. The Jaguars are putrid but somehow destroyed the Bucs last weekend 41-14. I really cannot understand that at all--but that's how bad the Bucs are right now. The Jags still cannot pass the ball and they have been nicked up on defense over the past month. The Falcons need this game for the playoffs and are playing at home. It's impossible to go against that combo vs one of the league's worst teams. Go with the Dirty Birds to cover the 11!!
2. Next up is the Saturday Night battle --Dallas Cowboys (-7) at TB Bucs Over/Under 46.
Yes, I hate the Cowboys, but I actually despise the Bucs more. The Bucs have lost seven straight games, and have only covered the spread once in those seven games. BAD. QB Josh Freeman is banged up and the team is literally in revolt. How did this happen so fast? Young players love to win, but spiral out of control during the tough times. They have lost faith and so have I in their ability to keep it close. In addition to the TB problems, Cowboy head coach Garrett needs this win to keep their playoff hopes alive. I'll take the Boys minus the points, but I love the six-point teaser taking the Boys to minus 1 and the OVER 40 points scored. Four of the last five TB games have gone OVER, while allowing an average of 38 points in those four losses.
That's it for now, more later in the week. Good luck fools!
1. Let's start with the Thursday Night game--Jax Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons (-11) Over/Under 42.
This game kind of reminds me of the MNF game last night, Rams at Seahawks. Terrible team goes on the road in primetime to get obliterated against a much better opponent. The Jaguars are putrid but somehow destroyed the Bucs last weekend 41-14. I really cannot understand that at all--but that's how bad the Bucs are right now. The Jags still cannot pass the ball and they have been nicked up on defense over the past month. The Falcons need this game for the playoffs and are playing at home. It's impossible to go against that combo vs one of the league's worst teams. Go with the Dirty Birds to cover the 11!!
2. Next up is the Saturday Night battle --Dallas Cowboys (-7) at TB Bucs Over/Under 46.
Yes, I hate the Cowboys, but I actually despise the Bucs more. The Bucs have lost seven straight games, and have only covered the spread once in those seven games. BAD. QB Josh Freeman is banged up and the team is literally in revolt. How did this happen so fast? Young players love to win, but spiral out of control during the tough times. They have lost faith and so have I in their ability to keep it close. In addition to the TB problems, Cowboy head coach Garrett needs this win to keep their playoff hopes alive. I'll take the Boys minus the points, but I love the six-point teaser taking the Boys to minus 1 and the OVER 40 points scored. Four of the last five TB games have gone OVER, while allowing an average of 38 points in those four losses.
That's it for now, more later in the week. Good luck fools!
Saturday, December 10, 2011
NFL Week #14
NFL Fantasy Playoffs
1. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers.
We all love the Panthers and huge their huge turnaround this season. Cam Newton has been remarkable and Steve Smith somehow found the fountain of youth. But C'mon man, they are playing the Falcons in a must win game. Some of you might not remember that the Falcons were the #1 seed in the NFC last year, but re-think it. The Falcons have some serious talent on their roster. The return of WR Julio Jones should be key in allowing Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White to dominate the middle of the field. The Panthers are PUTRID on defense, and they are exceptionally terrible at stopping the run. I see a lot of RB Mike Turner on Sunday, and a lot of easy rushing yards. The line might rise to 3, but this should be a two score game. Go with the Falcons!!
2. Chicago at Denver Broncos (-3).
The Broncos are one of my favorites and have won five in a row. Tebow has gone 6-1 as their starting QB and has been improving each week as a passer. I watched the Broncos beat the Vikings last week--and I really liked what I saw. The Broncos are playing with Passion, these guys believe that they will win each game. It's amazing what Tebow has done in so little time with their entire franchise. The Bears are a mess without Cutler and lost RB Matt Forte last week (out 2-5 weeks). The Bears lost to the KC Chiefs last week at home, this is not gonna be their rebound game. Go with the Broncos to win and cover. I even like the UNDER 37 as well.
3. Buffalo Bills at SD Chargers (-7) - Over/Under 48
My home team Chargers finally woke up last Monday night at Jacksonville. Coach Norv Turner actually looked alive and focused. He stayed aggressive and re-discovered his vertical passing game. RB Ryan Mathews has looked great and WR Malcolm Floyd has returned giving V-Jax some help. They are playing a Bills team spiraling out of control, losing five straight games. The Bills defense has really been exposed and stud RB Fred Jackson is out for the season. The pressure on Norv will dictate a high scoring game. Take the OVER 48 and the Boltz to cover the spread.
4. SF 49ers (-4.5) at Arizona Cards - Over/Under 38.5
This is gonna be quick..........Take the Under!!! The Under has gone in four of the five SF road games. The Cards games have also gone Under in four of their last five games and lost 23-7 at SF three weeks ago. It might be boring but it will finish UNDER 38.5!!
5. NY Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5).
Sunday Night Game should be a great battle of top NFC East teams. Both teams are desperate for a win and the lead in the division. Dallas is 5-1 at home this year while the Giants are only 3-3 on the road. The Giants have lost four straight games and the Cowboys should welcome back WR Miles Austin to the field. Logic says to take the Boys, but everything else is screaming Giants. I think that it will be a fantastic finish. Take the Giants and the points!! Side note--take the Giants to score Over 23 Points, they often fall behind early then throw down the field for big plays.
1. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers.
We all love the Panthers and huge their huge turnaround this season. Cam Newton has been remarkable and Steve Smith somehow found the fountain of youth. But C'mon man, they are playing the Falcons in a must win game. Some of you might not remember that the Falcons were the #1 seed in the NFC last year, but re-think it. The Falcons have some serious talent on their roster. The return of WR Julio Jones should be key in allowing Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White to dominate the middle of the field. The Panthers are PUTRID on defense, and they are exceptionally terrible at stopping the run. I see a lot of RB Mike Turner on Sunday, and a lot of easy rushing yards. The line might rise to 3, but this should be a two score game. Go with the Falcons!!
2. Chicago at Denver Broncos (-3).
The Broncos are one of my favorites and have won five in a row. Tebow has gone 6-1 as their starting QB and has been improving each week as a passer. I watched the Broncos beat the Vikings last week--and I really liked what I saw. The Broncos are playing with Passion, these guys believe that they will win each game. It's amazing what Tebow has done in so little time with their entire franchise. The Bears are a mess without Cutler and lost RB Matt Forte last week (out 2-5 weeks). The Bears lost to the KC Chiefs last week at home, this is not gonna be their rebound game. Go with the Broncos to win and cover. I even like the UNDER 37 as well.
3. Buffalo Bills at SD Chargers (-7) - Over/Under 48
My home team Chargers finally woke up last Monday night at Jacksonville. Coach Norv Turner actually looked alive and focused. He stayed aggressive and re-discovered his vertical passing game. RB Ryan Mathews has looked great and WR Malcolm Floyd has returned giving V-Jax some help. They are playing a Bills team spiraling out of control, losing five straight games. The Bills defense has really been exposed and stud RB Fred Jackson is out for the season. The pressure on Norv will dictate a high scoring game. Take the OVER 48 and the Boltz to cover the spread.
4. SF 49ers (-4.5) at Arizona Cards - Over/Under 38.5
This is gonna be quick..........Take the Under!!! The Under has gone in four of the five SF road games. The Cards games have also gone Under in four of their last five games and lost 23-7 at SF three weeks ago. It might be boring but it will finish UNDER 38.5!!
5. NY Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5).
Sunday Night Game should be a great battle of top NFC East teams. Both teams are desperate for a win and the lead in the division. Dallas is 5-1 at home this year while the Giants are only 3-3 on the road. The Giants have lost four straight games and the Cowboys should welcome back WR Miles Austin to the field. Logic says to take the Boys, but everything else is screaming Giants. I think that it will be a fantastic finish. Take the Giants and the points!! Side note--take the Giants to score Over 23 Points, they often fall behind early then throw down the field for big plays.
Saturday, December 3, 2011
NCAA Big Sat
NCAA Football
1. So Miss vs Houston Cougars (-13.5) at Houston.
The Cougars (12-0) look to stay alive for a huge BCS bowl game by staying undefeated against Southern Miss (10-2). Houston leads the nation in yards per game and scoring (52.7 ppg). Houston has been dominating teams all year long, especially lately. Southern Miss's strength is their run defense, which puts them in trouble facing QB Keenum and the pass-heavy Cougars. Southern Miss was 4-2 on the road this year and 7-5 ATS for the season. Houston was 10-2 ATS and 6-0 ATS on the year. Houston knows how important this game is for their program and Southern Miss really isn't all that good. Take Houston!!
2. Oklahoma Sooners at Okla State (-3.5)
Yes, I like the OSU offense and their style of play is phenomenal to watch on TV. But, I really worry about them against an experienced Sooner squad. These teams are very similar across the board, and I believe that the Oklahoma grit will prevail. I trust coach Stoops more than I believe in Gundy. The Sooner coaches watched that OSU loss at Iowa State two weeks ago and I'm sure they found OSU's weakness---RUN the ball. Iowa State rushed for 192 yards in that game and OSU has given up 186.6 per game. OSU was 3-2 ATS at home this season. Go with the Sooners and the points!! Also , like the Sooners point line at 34--go Over 34!
3. BYU (-8) at Hawaii Rainbows
The BYU Cougars travel to the islands to finish the year against the once fierce fighting rainbows. Hawaii had been dominant at home in recent years, but have really slipped this season. Hawaii needs to win this game to reach the Hawaii Bowl. Hawaii has lost three of their last four games, and has been flip-flopping QBS in the process. Ouch, that's a definite red flag. BYU has won seven of their last eight games and finished 7-4 ATS (3-1 ATS on the road). The Cougars are an older team with better coaching and better athletes. I really like the BYU O-line and think they will wear down the Rainbows. Take BYU!!!
1. So Miss vs Houston Cougars (-13.5) at Houston.
The Cougars (12-0) look to stay alive for a huge BCS bowl game by staying undefeated against Southern Miss (10-2). Houston leads the nation in yards per game and scoring (52.7 ppg). Houston has been dominating teams all year long, especially lately. Southern Miss's strength is their run defense, which puts them in trouble facing QB Keenum and the pass-heavy Cougars. Southern Miss was 4-2 on the road this year and 7-5 ATS for the season. Houston was 10-2 ATS and 6-0 ATS on the year. Houston knows how important this game is for their program and Southern Miss really isn't all that good. Take Houston!!
2. Oklahoma Sooners at Okla State (-3.5)
Yes, I like the OSU offense and their style of play is phenomenal to watch on TV. But, I really worry about them against an experienced Sooner squad. These teams are very similar across the board, and I believe that the Oklahoma grit will prevail. I trust coach Stoops more than I believe in Gundy. The Sooner coaches watched that OSU loss at Iowa State two weeks ago and I'm sure they found OSU's weakness---RUN the ball. Iowa State rushed for 192 yards in that game and OSU has given up 186.6 per game. OSU was 3-2 ATS at home this season. Go with the Sooners and the points!! Also , like the Sooners point line at 34--go Over 34!
3. BYU (-8) at Hawaii Rainbows
The BYU Cougars travel to the islands to finish the year against the once fierce fighting rainbows. Hawaii had been dominant at home in recent years, but have really slipped this season. Hawaii needs to win this game to reach the Hawaii Bowl. Hawaii has lost three of their last four games, and has been flip-flopping QBS in the process. Ouch, that's a definite red flag. BYU has won seven of their last eight games and finished 7-4 ATS (3-1 ATS on the road). The Cougars are an older team with better coaching and better athletes. I really like the BYU O-line and think they will wear down the Rainbows. Take BYU!!!
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
NFL Reactions
NFL Reactions and Initial Thoughts
1. I will lead with the Packers because I feel like it and they have a fantastic trend this season. They pounded the Lions on Thanksgiving and were only 6 point favorites. Again, this week they are only 7 point favorites---jump on them again!! They play at Giants, who got dumped 49-24 last night vs the Saints.
2. Baltimore beat SF on two terrible calls (Chop block on the 73 yard TD pass to Ginn and the 50-Yard Pass interference on the Interception that led to a Raven FG, which should have been SF ball around midfield). That completely reversed this game completely, SF relies on it's play-calling and simply isn't the same team when they are behind by a couple of scores. Baltimore gets Cleveland this week and a 6.5 point spread--I like it.
3. Atlanta and Houston both won low-scoring games this past week. They face off this week in Houston and the number is 40. Houston and Atlanta have both hit their Unders 8 times in their first 11 games. I like it for a ninth time on Sunday with Houston using their 3rd string QB and Atlanta focusing on the run game.
4. The Patriots stomped on the Eagles 38-20 as my top pick for Sunday. The Patriots are rolling and will be playing the hapless Colts at home this week. The Colts lost their greatest chance at winning this season by losing to Carolina in Indy last Sunday 27-19. They plan on benching QB Painter for Dan Orlavsky, who greatest feat was running out of the endzone on his own accord while playing for Detroit before they cut him. This game smells like an absolute beatdown. Belicheck and Brady have no mercy and the 20-point spread could be eclipsed in the first quarter in NE. Get on the Pats while you can.
5. The Lions will try to rebound after losing to GB by visiting New Orleans. Ouch. The Saints dominated NYG Monday and have shown very little interest in running the ball, much like the Lions. The Lions have gone OVER in all five road games this year. This game should be a ridiculous shootout. Get on the OVER 55 asap.
1. I will lead with the Packers because I feel like it and they have a fantastic trend this season. They pounded the Lions on Thanksgiving and were only 6 point favorites. Again, this week they are only 7 point favorites---jump on them again!! They play at Giants, who got dumped 49-24 last night vs the Saints.
2. Baltimore beat SF on two terrible calls (Chop block on the 73 yard TD pass to Ginn and the 50-Yard Pass interference on the Interception that led to a Raven FG, which should have been SF ball around midfield). That completely reversed this game completely, SF relies on it's play-calling and simply isn't the same team when they are behind by a couple of scores. Baltimore gets Cleveland this week and a 6.5 point spread--I like it.
3. Atlanta and Houston both won low-scoring games this past week. They face off this week in Houston and the number is 40. Houston and Atlanta have both hit their Unders 8 times in their first 11 games. I like it for a ninth time on Sunday with Houston using their 3rd string QB and Atlanta focusing on the run game.
4. The Patriots stomped on the Eagles 38-20 as my top pick for Sunday. The Patriots are rolling and will be playing the hapless Colts at home this week. The Colts lost their greatest chance at winning this season by losing to Carolina in Indy last Sunday 27-19. They plan on benching QB Painter for Dan Orlavsky, who greatest feat was running out of the endzone on his own accord while playing for Detroit before they cut him. This game smells like an absolute beatdown. Belicheck and Brady have no mercy and the 20-point spread could be eclipsed in the first quarter in NE. Get on the Pats while you can.
5. The Lions will try to rebound after losing to GB by visiting New Orleans. Ouch. The Saints dominated NYG Monday and have shown very little interest in running the ball, much like the Lions. The Lions have gone OVER in all five road games this year. This game should be a ridiculous shootout. Get on the OVER 55 asap.
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