NFL Championship Weekend

The NFL Championship Weekend is coming this Sunday, so let's get after it.

NFC Title Game Sunday at 12:00 Noon (PST) Green Bay -3.5 at Chicago - Over/Under 43.5
The Packers have a superior team as predicted by the odds makers in Vegas. It's a rare feat that a #6 seeded playoff team can go on the road and be favored by over a field goal in the NFC title game. Our gut says go with the Pack, nobody can stop Rodgers through the air but coach McCarthy. Green Bay almost lost to Philly in the opening round because they took their foot off the pedal and forced a weak rushing attack to control the clock. If they do that this week against a stout Chicago defense then it will end their season. RB James Starks is decent at best and lacks big game experience (25 carries for 66 yards last week). The Bears will handle him easily and make the Packers one dimensional. The key match ups will be the Packers WRs vs the Bears DBs in their Cover 2 zone. Driver is hobbled and James Jones has stone hands. We all know Jennings makes big plays (Week 17 vs Chicago) but Jordy Nelson could be the difference maker. Either way, if McCarthy has it his way than it should be close.
The Bears will have a hard time running with Matt Forte against the Packers tough front seven. The Packers need to be worried about Forte out of the backfield. His ability to beat the Packers LBs out in space is where the Bears need to focus. The Packers defensive weakness lies in the short passing game. Their linebackers don't cover well (I'm looking at you A.J Hawk) and are often fooled by play action. If the Bears can get out to an early lead sparked by their defense or special teams, then they can control the tempo and use play-action to move the football on the Pack. If not, then it will be tough to move the ball consistently and will expose Cutler to Green Bay's effective blitz packages. Chicago doesn't have the ability to come from behind and should play conservatively on offense.

The Pick: Green Bay 23, Bears 20 - Under 43.5
*It will be freezing and a little windy, plus Green Bay's road games have gone 'Under' in 7 out of 10 games this season.
*Chicago is the pick with the points at home in a storm

AFC Title Game Sunday at 3:30 pm (PST) NY Jets at Pittsburgh (-3.5) Over/Under 38.5
The Jets can play and the Patriots learned that the hard way last week in Foxboro. The Jets winning formula relies on the ability to use their passing game after showing their commitment to the run. After they run the ball successfully, they tend to open it up with Holmes and Edwards down the field. LT has lost a step and Shonn Greene's inability to catch and block will limit him. Pittsburgh is too tough against the run for them to factor. Edwards has terrible hands but the potential is always there for big plays. Holmes is the playmaker and comes up large in big games. Watch out for him on the quick slants given his incredible ability to run after the catch. Don't be fooled by Mark Sanchez, he stinks. Watch him play. He throws the ball late and frequently off target. If he does that again this week, then there is no way the Jets will win this game. The Steelers are fierce on defense with Polamalu back in the lineup, and nothing will come easy for the Jets on offense.
The Steelers will look to Big Ben to lead the way on offense. Unlike Brady, Ben can move around in the pocket and isn't afraid of pressure. The Jets will blitz early on, then drop off in zone coverage forcing Roethlisberger to attack the middle of the field using his secondary receivers. Look for Heath Miller to have a big game. The Steelers are a rare team that has the speed on the outside to beat the Revis and Cromartie. If the Jets blitz and don't get to Ben, then Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders will make them pay.

The Pick: Pittsburgh 24, NY Jets 17 - Over 38.5
*Brad Smith has been hurt and Nick Folk is tragic. Without a special teams edge, the Jets will lose the battle for field position and lose this game regardless of what Coach Rex Ryan predicts.
*There will be more passing in this game than most might expect and 38 points doesn't seem high enough.

2010-2011 Playoffs Predictions Record: 11-5 versus the Spread and Over/Under
Wild Card Weekend: NO & Over, Jets & Under, Balt & Under, G.Bay & Over
Divisional Weekend: Balt & Over, G.Bay & Over, Chicago & Under, NE & Over

**Bonus NBA Pick Tonight Phoenix -7.5 at Cleveland. Take the Suns!!