Week #11 - NFL
1. NY Jets (-6) at Denver Broncos - I have been a staunch Broncos supporter with Tebow as the QB all year. Coach Fox finally figured it out. Run the ball and mix up the playbook to fit Tebow's skills. The problem is that they will not be able to come back from two-score deficits, so if they fall behind early then they will be doomed. The Jets defense struggled against the run early this season, but have looked much better over the last month. Fred Jackson's 82 yards is the most yards allowed by a NYJ opponent in the last four games. The Jets should man up across the board and stack eight men in the box. I like Sanchez to find Holmes and Keller to beat a weak Denver secondary. Denver is 0-4 ATS at home this year. Go with the NY Jets!!
2. Arizona at SF 49ers (-9.5) - Gotta love the job that SF Coach Jim Harbaugh is doing with the 49ers. SF is 8-0-1 ATS this year and could be playing a dismal Cardinal squad without top RB Beanie Wells. Wells hasn't been practicing and has been limited in recent games. The 49ers are the best in the NFL against the run (73 yards/game) and haven't allowed a rushing TD in their last ten games. That means that backup QB John Skelton will have to beat the 49ers thru the air--scary. Watch for a SF defensive score in this one. Take the Niners minus the points!!
3. SD Chargers at Chicago Bears (-4) - The beat up Chargers travel to the windy city to take on the red-hot Bears. The Bears have won four straight games and have finally figured out their offense. OC Mike Martz has realized the importance of RB Matt Forte and the Bears ground game. The Bears have scored 130 points in their last four games and their defense dominated the Lions last week. The putrid Chargers are 2-7 ATS and will be without numerous key players on both sides of the ball. This could be a blood bath. Watch the Bears rout the Boltz!! Take Chicago Big!!
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Monday, November 14, 2011
MNF Vikings at GB Packers
MNF
Minnesota Vikings at GB Packers (-13) - Over/Under 50
A few weeks ago, the Vikings changed QBs to rookie Christian Ponder, and what a difference it made. They almost beat the Packers (33-27) then went on the road to Carolina and won 24-21. They are coming off a bye week, which has been terrible so far for teams in 2011, but that should really help Ponder get a better sense of the offense. They aren't going to beat Green Bay but they could make it close or at least high scoring. The total has gone OVER in 6 of the Packers last 9 games. These two teams play allow the most passing yards in the NFL. There is no team that can stop QB Aaron Rodgers and the Packer offense. Watch for a ton of points, as the Vikings should comeback in the second half and make this game decently close. The Big Play has to be the OVER 50!!! But make sure to check the weather before game time if you can just so there isn't a suprise blizzard or something crazy. The forecast is 30* and cloudy. Good luck.
Minnesota Vikings at GB Packers (-13) - Over/Under 50
A few weeks ago, the Vikings changed QBs to rookie Christian Ponder, and what a difference it made. They almost beat the Packers (33-27) then went on the road to Carolina and won 24-21. They are coming off a bye week, which has been terrible so far for teams in 2011, but that should really help Ponder get a better sense of the offense. They aren't going to beat Green Bay but they could make it close or at least high scoring. The total has gone OVER in 6 of the Packers last 9 games. These two teams play allow the most passing yards in the NFL. There is no team that can stop QB Aaron Rodgers and the Packer offense. Watch for a ton of points, as the Vikings should comeback in the second half and make this game decently close. The Big Play has to be the OVER 50!!! But make sure to check the weather before game time if you can just so there isn't a suprise blizzard or something crazy. The forecast is 30* and cloudy. Good luck.
Monday, November 7, 2011
Week 9 Reactions
Week 9
1. Thank you Packers for covering the spread against the overrated SD Chargers. Rivers threw 6 TDs, four to SD wideouts and two to Packer DBs. Aaron Rodgers cannot be stopped---always take GB with any point spread under a TD, anywhere at any time. Too easy.
2. The SF 49ers win and cover again. They are now 7-0-1 ATS and have the best play calling in football. They dominated the Skins on the road, allowing a late garbage time TD and a 59-yd FG. Stay on them each week.
3. The NY Jets are starting to look dangerous. The Jets D looked fantastic and absolutely dominated the once fierce Bills. We need to respect the Jets from now on. They are built for cold weather and should continue to improve on offense.
4. The Cincy Bengals won on the road at Tennessee behind heroics by rookie QB Dalton. They are now 6-2 overall and 4-1 on the road this year. They even better 7-1 ATS. They host the Steelers this weekend, a win and the playoffs look legit.
5. Home Favorites Lost Big Games. Eagles and Patriots. Both blew second half leads against more desperate teams. Another note on these games--the spreads have been larger this season than normal. I don't like giving over a TD unless teams are playing bottom of the barrel competition. The Giants and Bears are solid teams with good defenses. Bad combo for giving away a lot of points.
6. Two teams come off their bye week-Carolina and Detroit-both 5-2-1 ATS. I like both for the stretch run. Carolina hosts Tennessee next week and Detroit gets Chicago.
7. Indianapolis Blows (Again). Like I said last week, take advantage of them at all times. Jags minus 3 points seems fine. The Colts cannot run or pass, they scored once this past week and it came on defense. Sad. Take the Jags this weekend!
8. The STL Rams are also pathetic. They are 1-7 ATS and managed to blow another game last week at Arizona against the backup QB. They were getting 3.5 points, but lost by 6 on a 99-yard punt return in overtime. Amazing! They are on the road this weekend at Cleveland. Do not watch this game. UGLY, low scoring game.
9. KC and Oakland losing horrible games at home. Haha. Tebow strikes down the evil empire. Sweet justice. Tebow heads to KC next week. KC got obliterated by Miami 31-3 on Sunday. Miami's first win all year! Watch for Tebow to take it to the Chiefs this week as well. Denver is 3-1 ATS on the road and should run all over KC, plus they get 3.5 points. Get on the Broncos!
1. Thank you Packers for covering the spread against the overrated SD Chargers. Rivers threw 6 TDs, four to SD wideouts and two to Packer DBs. Aaron Rodgers cannot be stopped---always take GB with any point spread under a TD, anywhere at any time. Too easy.
2. The SF 49ers win and cover again. They are now 7-0-1 ATS and have the best play calling in football. They dominated the Skins on the road, allowing a late garbage time TD and a 59-yd FG. Stay on them each week.
3. The NY Jets are starting to look dangerous. The Jets D looked fantastic and absolutely dominated the once fierce Bills. We need to respect the Jets from now on. They are built for cold weather and should continue to improve on offense.
4. The Cincy Bengals won on the road at Tennessee behind heroics by rookie QB Dalton. They are now 6-2 overall and 4-1 on the road this year. They even better 7-1 ATS. They host the Steelers this weekend, a win and the playoffs look legit.
5. Home Favorites Lost Big Games. Eagles and Patriots. Both blew second half leads against more desperate teams. Another note on these games--the spreads have been larger this season than normal. I don't like giving over a TD unless teams are playing bottom of the barrel competition. The Giants and Bears are solid teams with good defenses. Bad combo for giving away a lot of points.
6. Two teams come off their bye week-Carolina and Detroit-both 5-2-1 ATS. I like both for the stretch run. Carolina hosts Tennessee next week and Detroit gets Chicago.
7. Indianapolis Blows (Again). Like I said last week, take advantage of them at all times. Jags minus 3 points seems fine. The Colts cannot run or pass, they scored once this past week and it came on defense. Sad. Take the Jags this weekend!
8. The STL Rams are also pathetic. They are 1-7 ATS and managed to blow another game last week at Arizona against the backup QB. They were getting 3.5 points, but lost by 6 on a 99-yard punt return in overtime. Amazing! They are on the road this weekend at Cleveland. Do not watch this game. UGLY, low scoring game.
9. KC and Oakland losing horrible games at home. Haha. Tebow strikes down the evil empire. Sweet justice. Tebow heads to KC next week. KC got obliterated by Miami 31-3 on Sunday. Miami's first win all year! Watch for Tebow to take it to the Chiefs this week as well. Denver is 3-1 ATS on the road and should run all over KC, plus they get 3.5 points. Get on the Broncos!
Late MNF Action
MNF
Chicago Bears at Philly Eagles (-8) - Over/Under 48
Both teams are poor against the spread and edge toward the "Under". The Bears aren't very good, but 8 points is too high. Take the Bears +8 and the Under.
Chicago Bears at Philly Eagles (-8) - Over/Under 48
Both teams are poor against the spread and edge toward the "Under". The Bears aren't very good, but 8 points is too high. Take the Bears +8 and the Under.
Saturday, November 5, 2011
NCAA Saturday
NCAA Ball Games
1. LSU at Alabama (-4.5)- The BIG game of the day (obviously), is in primetime at 5 pm (PST). I love coach Miles for LSU, but they are on the road and aren't as talented as Bama. The only weakness on Bama is their QB, so if LSU can get ahead in this game then the Tide will be in trouble. LSU has won six of the last eight matchups with Alabama. Unreal. Let's go with LSU with the points.
2. Wash St at California (-8.5)- WSU is 2-20 on the road in their last 22 games. Cal is a much better team and playing at home, a combination that I love. Cal needs to win this game, and just crushed Utah (34-10) during their last home game. Let's roll with Cal!!
3. Utah St at Hawaii (-3)- The late night game, always a favorite of mine. Hawaii is 2-1 ATS this year and has always played well at home. They definitely take advantage of all the home field aspects. Utah State is horrible and is 2-4 ATS vs Hawaii. Hawaii is 9-1 in their last 10 home games. Go with the Fightin Rainbows!!
1. LSU at Alabama (-4.5)- The BIG game of the day (obviously), is in primetime at 5 pm (PST). I love coach Miles for LSU, but they are on the road and aren't as talented as Bama. The only weakness on Bama is their QB, so if LSU can get ahead in this game then the Tide will be in trouble. LSU has won six of the last eight matchups with Alabama. Unreal. Let's go with LSU with the points.
2. Wash St at California (-8.5)- WSU is 2-20 on the road in their last 22 games. Cal is a much better team and playing at home, a combination that I love. Cal needs to win this game, and just crushed Utah (34-10) during their last home game. Let's roll with Cal!!
3. Utah St at Hawaii (-3)- The late night game, always a favorite of mine. Hawaii is 2-1 ATS this year and has always played well at home. They definitely take advantage of all the home field aspects. Utah State is horrible and is 2-4 ATS vs Hawaii. Hawaii is 9-1 in their last 10 home games. Go with the Fightin Rainbows!!
Thursday, November 3, 2011
NCAA Friday
NCAA Friday
The Trojans (6-2) travel to the rockies to take on the hapless Buffaloes (1-8). The Trojans are a solid squad and should crush Colorado. The Buffaloes have lost six straight games and have one of the worst defenses in college football allowing 38.3 points per game. Even worse, they have been absolutely destroyed in their last four games by a combined score of 193-47. They are helpless! USC is 2-1 ATS on the road this year and need a win after the heartbreaking loss last week to Stanford. They need a convincing win for their bowl aspirations. Watch for them to dominate Colorado on national TV. Go with USC -21!!
**Late Add--USC scoring Over 40 points--that's the point line for USC only, should be easy! (Update 3:34 pm)
USC (-21) at Colorado
The Trojans (6-2) travel to the rockies to take on the hapless Buffaloes (1-8). The Trojans are a solid squad and should crush Colorado. The Buffaloes have lost six straight games and have one of the worst defenses in college football allowing 38.3 points per game. Even worse, they have been absolutely destroyed in their last four games by a combined score of 193-47. They are helpless! USC is 2-1 ATS on the road this year and need a win after the heartbreaking loss last week to Stanford. They need a convincing win for their bowl aspirations. Watch for them to dominate Colorado on national TV. Go with USC -21!!
**Late Add--USC scoring Over 40 points--that's the point line for USC only, should be easy! (Update 3:34 pm)
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
Week 8 Revelations
Week 8 - NFL
1. Indianapolis has thrown in the towel. They will probably get crushed in every road game, where they can hide from their fans. At home it might be a different story, but their team has always relied on Manning way too much and now they are paying for it. They are not built to come from behind and should be avoided or exploited at all times.
2. Cincy, Carolina and Minnesota are very dangerous teams with rookie QBs who are playing at high levels. These teams will compete and should be respected no matter who the opponent may be.
3. It's time to believe in Buffalo, Houston, San Francisco and Detroit. These teams are solid and their defenses are better than most people may think. Never bet against them at home. Never. These three teams still get nice spreads, take advantage if you can.
4. Philadelphia destroyed Dallas--I see two teams going opposite directions. I really don't like Dallas on offense. I see a scared QB looking to dump the ball off and worried about making mistakes deep down the field. On the other hand, Philly might have finally figured out their personnel. On Offense, spread the field on offense and throw quick screens to slow down the pass rush. On D, play man coverage and blitz the QB. Watch out NFC.
5. The Sunday night game, Baltimore at Pittsburgh, will showcase the difference that eight weeks can make. Baltimore killed Pitt 35-7 in week 1, just completely dominated the Steelers in all categories. Over the past two weeks, I see a very disturbing trend for the Ravens. Their O-line has looked slow and weak, they have struggled to run the ball and Flacco has been pressured repeatedly. Pittsburgh will exploit this weakness and avenge their week one loss.
6. Never trust bad coaching! Denver, Miami and the SD Chargers have the three worst coaching staffs in the NFL. These teams are trouble and will let you down over and over again.
7. The NO Saints are a great team.....at home. Do NOT take them on the road against anyone. Always remember their loss at Seattle last year in the playoffs. If you forget, recall last week's debacle in St. Louis.
8. Always stick to your guns and trust your gut feeling. Never let anyone influence your beliefs, especially pre-game shows or ex-players trying to prove their wit.
9. The Green Bay Packers are the best team in the NFL by far right now, they are at minus six points at SD right now--jump on it!
10. Quick Pick for Friday NCAA--USC (-22) at Colorado. Colorado Buffaloes are putrid. Tommy Trojan will celebrate again. Get on USC asap.
1. Indianapolis has thrown in the towel. They will probably get crushed in every road game, where they can hide from their fans. At home it might be a different story, but their team has always relied on Manning way too much and now they are paying for it. They are not built to come from behind and should be avoided or exploited at all times.
2. Cincy, Carolina and Minnesota are very dangerous teams with rookie QBs who are playing at high levels. These teams will compete and should be respected no matter who the opponent may be.
3. It's time to believe in Buffalo, Houston, San Francisco and Detroit. These teams are solid and their defenses are better than most people may think. Never bet against them at home. Never. These three teams still get nice spreads, take advantage if you can.
4. Philadelphia destroyed Dallas--I see two teams going opposite directions. I really don't like Dallas on offense. I see a scared QB looking to dump the ball off and worried about making mistakes deep down the field. On the other hand, Philly might have finally figured out their personnel. On Offense, spread the field on offense and throw quick screens to slow down the pass rush. On D, play man coverage and blitz the QB. Watch out NFC.
5. The Sunday night game, Baltimore at Pittsburgh, will showcase the difference that eight weeks can make. Baltimore killed Pitt 35-7 in week 1, just completely dominated the Steelers in all categories. Over the past two weeks, I see a very disturbing trend for the Ravens. Their O-line has looked slow and weak, they have struggled to run the ball and Flacco has been pressured repeatedly. Pittsburgh will exploit this weakness and avenge their week one loss.
6. Never trust bad coaching! Denver, Miami and the SD Chargers have the three worst coaching staffs in the NFL. These teams are trouble and will let you down over and over again.
7. The NO Saints are a great team.....at home. Do NOT take them on the road against anyone. Always remember their loss at Seattle last year in the playoffs. If you forget, recall last week's debacle in St. Louis.
8. Always stick to your guns and trust your gut feeling. Never let anyone influence your beliefs, especially pre-game shows or ex-players trying to prove their wit.
9. The Green Bay Packers are the best team in the NFL by far right now, they are at minus six points at SD right now--jump on it!
10. Quick Pick for Friday NCAA--USC (-22) at Colorado. Colorado Buffaloes are putrid. Tommy Trojan will celebrate again. Get on USC asap.
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