First Glance at the NFL Primetime Lines
1. Let's start with the Thursday Night game--Jax Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons (-11) Over/Under 42.
This game kind of reminds me of the MNF game last night, Rams at Seahawks. Terrible team goes on the road in primetime to get obliterated against a much better opponent. The Jaguars are putrid but somehow destroyed the Bucs last weekend 41-14. I really cannot understand that at all--but that's how bad the Bucs are right now. The Jags still cannot pass the ball and they have been nicked up on defense over the past month. The Falcons need this game for the playoffs and are playing at home. It's impossible to go against that combo vs one of the league's worst teams. Go with the Dirty Birds to cover the 11!!
2. Next up is the Saturday Night battle --Dallas Cowboys (-7) at TB Bucs Over/Under 46.
Yes, I hate the Cowboys, but I actually despise the Bucs more. The Bucs have lost seven straight games, and have only covered the spread once in those seven games. BAD. QB Josh Freeman is banged up and the team is literally in revolt. How did this happen so fast? Young players love to win, but spiral out of control during the tough times. They have lost faith and so have I in their ability to keep it close. In addition to the TB problems, Cowboy head coach Garrett needs this win to keep their playoff hopes alive. I'll take the Boys minus the points, but I love the six-point teaser taking the Boys to minus 1 and the OVER 40 points scored. Four of the last five TB games have gone OVER, while allowing an average of 38 points in those four losses.
That's it for now, more later in the week. Good luck fools!
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Saturday, December 10, 2011
NFL Week #14
NFL Fantasy Playoffs
1. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers.
We all love the Panthers and huge their huge turnaround this season. Cam Newton has been remarkable and Steve Smith somehow found the fountain of youth. But C'mon man, they are playing the Falcons in a must win game. Some of you might not remember that the Falcons were the #1 seed in the NFC last year, but re-think it. The Falcons have some serious talent on their roster. The return of WR Julio Jones should be key in allowing Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White to dominate the middle of the field. The Panthers are PUTRID on defense, and they are exceptionally terrible at stopping the run. I see a lot of RB Mike Turner on Sunday, and a lot of easy rushing yards. The line might rise to 3, but this should be a two score game. Go with the Falcons!!
2. Chicago at Denver Broncos (-3).
The Broncos are one of my favorites and have won five in a row. Tebow has gone 6-1 as their starting QB and has been improving each week as a passer. I watched the Broncos beat the Vikings last week--and I really liked what I saw. The Broncos are playing with Passion, these guys believe that they will win each game. It's amazing what Tebow has done in so little time with their entire franchise. The Bears are a mess without Cutler and lost RB Matt Forte last week (out 2-5 weeks). The Bears lost to the KC Chiefs last week at home, this is not gonna be their rebound game. Go with the Broncos to win and cover. I even like the UNDER 37 as well.
3. Buffalo Bills at SD Chargers (-7) - Over/Under 48
My home team Chargers finally woke up last Monday night at Jacksonville. Coach Norv Turner actually looked alive and focused. He stayed aggressive and re-discovered his vertical passing game. RB Ryan Mathews has looked great and WR Malcolm Floyd has returned giving V-Jax some help. They are playing a Bills team spiraling out of control, losing five straight games. The Bills defense has really been exposed and stud RB Fred Jackson is out for the season. The pressure on Norv will dictate a high scoring game. Take the OVER 48 and the Boltz to cover the spread.
4. SF 49ers (-4.5) at Arizona Cards - Over/Under 38.5
This is gonna be quick..........Take the Under!!! The Under has gone in four of the five SF road games. The Cards games have also gone Under in four of their last five games and lost 23-7 at SF three weeks ago. It might be boring but it will finish UNDER 38.5!!
5. NY Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5).
Sunday Night Game should be a great battle of top NFC East teams. Both teams are desperate for a win and the lead in the division. Dallas is 5-1 at home this year while the Giants are only 3-3 on the road. The Giants have lost four straight games and the Cowboys should welcome back WR Miles Austin to the field. Logic says to take the Boys, but everything else is screaming Giants. I think that it will be a fantastic finish. Take the Giants and the points!! Side note--take the Giants to score Over 23 Points, they often fall behind early then throw down the field for big plays.
1. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers.
We all love the Panthers and huge their huge turnaround this season. Cam Newton has been remarkable and Steve Smith somehow found the fountain of youth. But C'mon man, they are playing the Falcons in a must win game. Some of you might not remember that the Falcons were the #1 seed in the NFC last year, but re-think it. The Falcons have some serious talent on their roster. The return of WR Julio Jones should be key in allowing Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White to dominate the middle of the field. The Panthers are PUTRID on defense, and they are exceptionally terrible at stopping the run. I see a lot of RB Mike Turner on Sunday, and a lot of easy rushing yards. The line might rise to 3, but this should be a two score game. Go with the Falcons!!
2. Chicago at Denver Broncos (-3).
The Broncos are one of my favorites and have won five in a row. Tebow has gone 6-1 as their starting QB and has been improving each week as a passer. I watched the Broncos beat the Vikings last week--and I really liked what I saw. The Broncos are playing with Passion, these guys believe that they will win each game. It's amazing what Tebow has done in so little time with their entire franchise. The Bears are a mess without Cutler and lost RB Matt Forte last week (out 2-5 weeks). The Bears lost to the KC Chiefs last week at home, this is not gonna be their rebound game. Go with the Broncos to win and cover. I even like the UNDER 37 as well.
3. Buffalo Bills at SD Chargers (-7) - Over/Under 48
My home team Chargers finally woke up last Monday night at Jacksonville. Coach Norv Turner actually looked alive and focused. He stayed aggressive and re-discovered his vertical passing game. RB Ryan Mathews has looked great and WR Malcolm Floyd has returned giving V-Jax some help. They are playing a Bills team spiraling out of control, losing five straight games. The Bills defense has really been exposed and stud RB Fred Jackson is out for the season. The pressure on Norv will dictate a high scoring game. Take the OVER 48 and the Boltz to cover the spread.
4. SF 49ers (-4.5) at Arizona Cards - Over/Under 38.5
This is gonna be quick..........Take the Under!!! The Under has gone in four of the five SF road games. The Cards games have also gone Under in four of their last five games and lost 23-7 at SF three weeks ago. It might be boring but it will finish UNDER 38.5!!
5. NY Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5).
Sunday Night Game should be a great battle of top NFC East teams. Both teams are desperate for a win and the lead in the division. Dallas is 5-1 at home this year while the Giants are only 3-3 on the road. The Giants have lost four straight games and the Cowboys should welcome back WR Miles Austin to the field. Logic says to take the Boys, but everything else is screaming Giants. I think that it will be a fantastic finish. Take the Giants and the points!! Side note--take the Giants to score Over 23 Points, they often fall behind early then throw down the field for big plays.
Saturday, December 3, 2011
NCAA Big Sat
NCAA Football
1. So Miss vs Houston Cougars (-13.5) at Houston.
The Cougars (12-0) look to stay alive for a huge BCS bowl game by staying undefeated against Southern Miss (10-2). Houston leads the nation in yards per game and scoring (52.7 ppg). Houston has been dominating teams all year long, especially lately. Southern Miss's strength is their run defense, which puts them in trouble facing QB Keenum and the pass-heavy Cougars. Southern Miss was 4-2 on the road this year and 7-5 ATS for the season. Houston was 10-2 ATS and 6-0 ATS on the year. Houston knows how important this game is for their program and Southern Miss really isn't all that good. Take Houston!!
2. Oklahoma Sooners at Okla State (-3.5)
Yes, I like the OSU offense and their style of play is phenomenal to watch on TV. But, I really worry about them against an experienced Sooner squad. These teams are very similar across the board, and I believe that the Oklahoma grit will prevail. I trust coach Stoops more than I believe in Gundy. The Sooner coaches watched that OSU loss at Iowa State two weeks ago and I'm sure they found OSU's weakness---RUN the ball. Iowa State rushed for 192 yards in that game and OSU has given up 186.6 per game. OSU was 3-2 ATS at home this season. Go with the Sooners and the points!! Also , like the Sooners point line at 34--go Over 34!
3. BYU (-8) at Hawaii Rainbows
The BYU Cougars travel to the islands to finish the year against the once fierce fighting rainbows. Hawaii had been dominant at home in recent years, but have really slipped this season. Hawaii needs to win this game to reach the Hawaii Bowl. Hawaii has lost three of their last four games, and has been flip-flopping QBS in the process. Ouch, that's a definite red flag. BYU has won seven of their last eight games and finished 7-4 ATS (3-1 ATS on the road). The Cougars are an older team with better coaching and better athletes. I really like the BYU O-line and think they will wear down the Rainbows. Take BYU!!!
1. So Miss vs Houston Cougars (-13.5) at Houston.
The Cougars (12-0) look to stay alive for a huge BCS bowl game by staying undefeated against Southern Miss (10-2). Houston leads the nation in yards per game and scoring (52.7 ppg). Houston has been dominating teams all year long, especially lately. Southern Miss's strength is their run defense, which puts them in trouble facing QB Keenum and the pass-heavy Cougars. Southern Miss was 4-2 on the road this year and 7-5 ATS for the season. Houston was 10-2 ATS and 6-0 ATS on the year. Houston knows how important this game is for their program and Southern Miss really isn't all that good. Take Houston!!
2. Oklahoma Sooners at Okla State (-3.5)
Yes, I like the OSU offense and their style of play is phenomenal to watch on TV. But, I really worry about them against an experienced Sooner squad. These teams are very similar across the board, and I believe that the Oklahoma grit will prevail. I trust coach Stoops more than I believe in Gundy. The Sooner coaches watched that OSU loss at Iowa State two weeks ago and I'm sure they found OSU's weakness---RUN the ball. Iowa State rushed for 192 yards in that game and OSU has given up 186.6 per game. OSU was 3-2 ATS at home this season. Go with the Sooners and the points!! Also , like the Sooners point line at 34--go Over 34!
3. BYU (-8) at Hawaii Rainbows
The BYU Cougars travel to the islands to finish the year against the once fierce fighting rainbows. Hawaii had been dominant at home in recent years, but have really slipped this season. Hawaii needs to win this game to reach the Hawaii Bowl. Hawaii has lost three of their last four games, and has been flip-flopping QBS in the process. Ouch, that's a definite red flag. BYU has won seven of their last eight games and finished 7-4 ATS (3-1 ATS on the road). The Cougars are an older team with better coaching and better athletes. I really like the BYU O-line and think they will wear down the Rainbows. Take BYU!!!
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
NFL Reactions
NFL Reactions and Initial Thoughts
1. I will lead with the Packers because I feel like it and they have a fantastic trend this season. They pounded the Lions on Thanksgiving and were only 6 point favorites. Again, this week they are only 7 point favorites---jump on them again!! They play at Giants, who got dumped 49-24 last night vs the Saints.
2. Baltimore beat SF on two terrible calls (Chop block on the 73 yard TD pass to Ginn and the 50-Yard Pass interference on the Interception that led to a Raven FG, which should have been SF ball around midfield). That completely reversed this game completely, SF relies on it's play-calling and simply isn't the same team when they are behind by a couple of scores. Baltimore gets Cleveland this week and a 6.5 point spread--I like it.
3. Atlanta and Houston both won low-scoring games this past week. They face off this week in Houston and the number is 40. Houston and Atlanta have both hit their Unders 8 times in their first 11 games. I like it for a ninth time on Sunday with Houston using their 3rd string QB and Atlanta focusing on the run game.
4. The Patriots stomped on the Eagles 38-20 as my top pick for Sunday. The Patriots are rolling and will be playing the hapless Colts at home this week. The Colts lost their greatest chance at winning this season by losing to Carolina in Indy last Sunday 27-19. They plan on benching QB Painter for Dan Orlavsky, who greatest feat was running out of the endzone on his own accord while playing for Detroit before they cut him. This game smells like an absolute beatdown. Belicheck and Brady have no mercy and the 20-point spread could be eclipsed in the first quarter in NE. Get on the Pats while you can.
5. The Lions will try to rebound after losing to GB by visiting New Orleans. Ouch. The Saints dominated NYG Monday and have shown very little interest in running the ball, much like the Lions. The Lions have gone OVER in all five road games this year. This game should be a ridiculous shootout. Get on the OVER 55 asap.
1. I will lead with the Packers because I feel like it and they have a fantastic trend this season. They pounded the Lions on Thanksgiving and were only 6 point favorites. Again, this week they are only 7 point favorites---jump on them again!! They play at Giants, who got dumped 49-24 last night vs the Saints.
2. Baltimore beat SF on two terrible calls (Chop block on the 73 yard TD pass to Ginn and the 50-Yard Pass interference on the Interception that led to a Raven FG, which should have been SF ball around midfield). That completely reversed this game completely, SF relies on it's play-calling and simply isn't the same team when they are behind by a couple of scores. Baltimore gets Cleveland this week and a 6.5 point spread--I like it.
3. Atlanta and Houston both won low-scoring games this past week. They face off this week in Houston and the number is 40. Houston and Atlanta have both hit their Unders 8 times in their first 11 games. I like it for a ninth time on Sunday with Houston using their 3rd string QB and Atlanta focusing on the run game.
4. The Patriots stomped on the Eagles 38-20 as my top pick for Sunday. The Patriots are rolling and will be playing the hapless Colts at home this week. The Colts lost their greatest chance at winning this season by losing to Carolina in Indy last Sunday 27-19. They plan on benching QB Painter for Dan Orlavsky, who greatest feat was running out of the endzone on his own accord while playing for Detroit before they cut him. This game smells like an absolute beatdown. Belicheck and Brady have no mercy and the 20-point spread could be eclipsed in the first quarter in NE. Get on the Pats while you can.
5. The Lions will try to rebound after losing to GB by visiting New Orleans. Ouch. The Saints dominated NYG Monday and have shown very little interest in running the ball, much like the Lions. The Lions have gone OVER in all five road games this year. This game should be a ridiculous shootout. Get on the OVER 55 asap.
Sunday, November 27, 2011
NFL Big Sunday
Pigskin Picks
1. Cleveland Browns at Cincy Bengals (-7)-Over/Under 38
Let's make this easy, the Bengals are desperate to win this game and are at home. The Browns cannot score and will be without RB Peyton Hillis again. The Browns have averaged under 11 points a game over the last five contests. Their offensive line is battered and QB Colt Mccoy has been putrid. The Bengals are 7-2-1 ATS, and have only lost to the Ravens and Steelers in the last two months. They should have no problem with the Browns in Cincy. Take the Bengals minus the points!
2. Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks (-3)-Over/Under 38
Washington is in turmoil and goes across the country to battle the suddenly decent Seahawks. That's a recipe for disaster. The Redskins are 1-4 on the road this year and have lost six games in a row overall. Seattle is 6-3-1 ATS this year and 4-1 ATS at home. They are finally healthy and rolling after starting the season slow. Their coaching also finally got a clue on how to win---run the ball with Lynch and then mix in some crossing patterns. The Seahawks are looking for their third straight victory and will get it against the over-matched Skins. Get on the Seahawks!!
3. NE Patriots (-4) at Philly Eagles-Over/Under 50
I never bet against Tom Brady and the Pats, even if I don't think that they will win or cover. I really don't understand this spread at all. I would have guessed it would be around 10 points. Philly is 1-4 at home ATS and straight up. QB Mike Vick and star WR Jeremy Maclin are out again. The Pats have scored at least 30 points in 7 of their 10 games so far and scored 71 points in their last two games. The Pats will score and I doubt that the Eagles will be able to keep up. Take the Pats to roll!!
1. Cleveland Browns at Cincy Bengals (-7)-Over/Under 38
Let's make this easy, the Bengals are desperate to win this game and are at home. The Browns cannot score and will be without RB Peyton Hillis again. The Browns have averaged under 11 points a game over the last five contests. Their offensive line is battered and QB Colt Mccoy has been putrid. The Bengals are 7-2-1 ATS, and have only lost to the Ravens and Steelers in the last two months. They should have no problem with the Browns in Cincy. Take the Bengals minus the points!
2. Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks (-3)-Over/Under 38
Washington is in turmoil and goes across the country to battle the suddenly decent Seahawks. That's a recipe for disaster. The Redskins are 1-4 on the road this year and have lost six games in a row overall. Seattle is 6-3-1 ATS this year and 4-1 ATS at home. They are finally healthy and rolling after starting the season slow. Their coaching also finally got a clue on how to win---run the ball with Lynch and then mix in some crossing patterns. The Seahawks are looking for their third straight victory and will get it against the over-matched Skins. Get on the Seahawks!!
3. NE Patriots (-4) at Philly Eagles-Over/Under 50
I never bet against Tom Brady and the Pats, even if I don't think that they will win or cover. I really don't understand this spread at all. I would have guessed it would be around 10 points. Philly is 1-4 at home ATS and straight up. QB Mike Vick and star WR Jeremy Maclin are out again. The Pats have scored at least 30 points in 7 of their 10 games so far and scored 71 points in their last two games. The Pats will score and I doubt that the Eagles will be able to keep up. Take the Pats to roll!!
Saturday, November 26, 2011
NCAA Saturday
NCAA Football Time
1. Ohio State at Michigan (-7.5).
I have long despised the OSU Buckeyes, always drastically overrated for some odd reason. OSU has lost two in a row and is 0-3 on the road this season. The Buckeyes have completed less than 48% of their passes this year and rank 115th in passing offense in the nation. That is insanely bad!! OSU has looked slow this year and will struggle to contain Michigan's speed on offense. QB Denard Robinson will avenge last year's humiliating 37-7 loss at OSU. I like Michigan to hurt the Buckeyes. Go with Michigan!! G*d Damn Referees f*cked Michigan.(Update 12:27 PST)
2. UAB (-3.5) at Florida Atlantic.
Florida Atlantic is 0-10 on the year and is ranked 118th overall in offense. These guys don't just lose, they lose badly. They have been outscored by 123 points in their last five games. Meanwhile, UAB is 3-5 in the underrated Conference USA. The UAB Blazers have won two in a row (at Memphis and against top 25 Southern Miss), while scoring 75 points. This looks like a team on the rise with their QB Jon Perry completing over 57% of his passes. Let's roll with the UAB Blazers for their third straight win!! Also, Take the OVER 54!
3. Troy State at Western Kentucky (-5.5)
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (6-5) are playing for first place in the Sun Belt and have won six of their last seven games. Their one loss was at #1 LSU by a score of 42-9, but were only behind 14-7 at halftime and really played well despite losing. The Hilltoppers are 9-2 ATS and are playing their final home game of the year. Troy State can pass the ball on offense, but stink on defense and will struggle to run the ball against a stout Hilltopper D. Take Western Kentucky at home playing for a shot at the conference title.
1. Ohio State at Michigan (-7.5).
I have long despised the OSU Buckeyes, always drastically overrated for some odd reason. OSU has lost two in a row and is 0-3 on the road this season. The Buckeyes have completed less than 48% of their passes this year and rank 115th in passing offense in the nation. That is insanely bad!! OSU has looked slow this year and will struggle to contain Michigan's speed on offense. QB Denard Robinson will avenge last year's humiliating 37-7 loss at OSU. I like Michigan to hurt the Buckeyes. Go with Michigan!! G*d Damn Referees f*cked Michigan.(Update 12:27 PST)
2. UAB (-3.5) at Florida Atlantic.
Florida Atlantic is 0-10 on the year and is ranked 118th overall in offense. These guys don't just lose, they lose badly. They have been outscored by 123 points in their last five games. Meanwhile, UAB is 3-5 in the underrated Conference USA. The UAB Blazers have won two in a row (at Memphis and against top 25 Southern Miss), while scoring 75 points. This looks like a team on the rise with their QB Jon Perry completing over 57% of his passes. Let's roll with the UAB Blazers for their third straight win!! Also, Take the OVER 54!
3. Troy State at Western Kentucky (-5.5)
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (6-5) are playing for first place in the Sun Belt and have won six of their last seven games. Their one loss was at #1 LSU by a score of 42-9, but were only behind 14-7 at halftime and really played well despite losing. The Hilltoppers are 9-2 ATS and are playing their final home game of the year. Troy State can pass the ball on offense, but stink on defense and will struggle to run the ball against a stout Hilltopper D. Take Western Kentucky at home playing for a shot at the conference title.
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
NFL Thanksgiving
NFL - Turkey Time
1. G.Bay Packers (-6) at Detroit Lions / Over 56.
I stated something earlier this season about taking the Packers whenever they have under a 7-point spread, and I will stick to it. I gotta admit that the Packers played real sloppy last week and their lack of a running game might hurt them in the playoffs, but we are not in post-season. The Lions are a solid team this year and I like them to make this game close. But Lions simply aren't in the same class as the Packers. Rodgers doesn't make mistakes and Stafford still does. The Lions are only 3-2 at home this year and practically lost last week to Carolina. Let's stick with the Packers minus 6!! Also, the public loves the Over 56 and it's hard to argue with that.
2. Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys (-7) / Over 45.5.
Miami is playing red-hot right now, winning their last three games in a row, but look at those victories a little closer. They beat KC, Washington and Buffalo---not an impressive bunch. The Dolphins will continue to start QB Matt Moore, who has failed to impress since taking over for the injured Chad Henne. I think the Fins are due for a regression soon. Dallas has also won three straight games and need this win to keep pace with the NY Giants for first place in the NFC East. The only real trend in this game is that the Dolphins' games have gone UNDER in 9 of their 10 games this season. My play is to take the Under --and then buy the half point with the Cowboys (-6.5).
3. SF 49ers at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) / Over 38.5.
The battle of the Harbaugh bros is our showcase on Thanksgiving night. I really cannot solve the Ravens, they seem to play great against big opponents then follow it up with a stinker. They played well against the Bengals in a battle for first place last week, winning 31-24. They could be without defensive captain MLB Ray Lewis, who is doubtful after not playing last Sunday. The Ravens seem to lose control of games when they fail to score first. The 49ers are 9-0-1 ATS this year and have been a favorite of mine for most of the year. Jim Harbaugh is the best coach in football and will show it again despite having much inferior talent than Baltimore. I like the 49ers to win, but will gladly take the 3.5 points!! If you need a Over/Under call then follow the trend, only two games all year have gone Under for Baltimore. Ride the OVER 38.5.
Have a great Thanksgiving Fools!
1. G.Bay Packers (-6) at Detroit Lions / Over 56.
I stated something earlier this season about taking the Packers whenever they have under a 7-point spread, and I will stick to it. I gotta admit that the Packers played real sloppy last week and their lack of a running game might hurt them in the playoffs, but we are not in post-season. The Lions are a solid team this year and I like them to make this game close. But Lions simply aren't in the same class as the Packers. Rodgers doesn't make mistakes and Stafford still does. The Lions are only 3-2 at home this year and practically lost last week to Carolina. Let's stick with the Packers minus 6!! Also, the public loves the Over 56 and it's hard to argue with that.
2. Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys (-7) / Over 45.5.
Miami is playing red-hot right now, winning their last three games in a row, but look at those victories a little closer. They beat KC, Washington and Buffalo---not an impressive bunch. The Dolphins will continue to start QB Matt Moore, who has failed to impress since taking over for the injured Chad Henne. I think the Fins are due for a regression soon. Dallas has also won three straight games and need this win to keep pace with the NY Giants for first place in the NFC East. The only real trend in this game is that the Dolphins' games have gone UNDER in 9 of their 10 games this season. My play is to take the Under --and then buy the half point with the Cowboys (-6.5).
3. SF 49ers at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) / Over 38.5.
The battle of the Harbaugh bros is our showcase on Thanksgiving night. I really cannot solve the Ravens, they seem to play great against big opponents then follow it up with a stinker. They played well against the Bengals in a battle for first place last week, winning 31-24. They could be without defensive captain MLB Ray Lewis, who is doubtful after not playing last Sunday. The Ravens seem to lose control of games when they fail to score first. The 49ers are 9-0-1 ATS this year and have been a favorite of mine for most of the year. Jim Harbaugh is the best coach in football and will show it again despite having much inferior talent than Baltimore. I like the 49ers to win, but will gladly take the 3.5 points!! If you need a Over/Under call then follow the trend, only two games all year have gone Under for Baltimore. Ride the OVER 38.5.
Have a great Thanksgiving Fools!
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