The Pick of the Day - Friday
Houston Astros at Texas Rangers -1.5 Runs (-135)
The fifth place Astros (27-36) travel across the state to battle the first place Rangers (37-27). The Astros are a putrid 9-22 on the road this year, and will send righty Jordan Lyles (1-2, 5.40 ERA). Lyles is 0-5 with a 5.94 ERA on the road in his career, and allowed 6 earned runs already this year to the Rangers in his only start (5 IP). Darvish (7-4, 3.72 ERA) takes the mound for the Rangers on seven days rest, similar to his Japanese routine. The Rangers have won 16 of the last 21 meetings with Houston and look to continue to dominate the NL (6-3) in interleague play. Go with the Rangers BIG!!
Friday, June 15, 2012
Friday, June 1, 2012
3 MLB Picks - Friday
It's been a while but here are three quality picks for today, June 1st. We will kick off the weekend with three easy games. Good luck fools.
Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals (-165) or -1.5 Runs at +130
Take Strasburg (5-1, 2.64 ERA) and the Nats. Washington is 15-8 at home and riding high in first place in the NL East. The Braves are throwing Minor (2-4, 6.98 ERA), who has allowed 35 earned runs in his last six starts. He stinks. This could get real ugly, go with the Nats to cover the 1.5 runs. If you are nervous, then take it straight up (-165).
Chicago Cubs at SF Giants (-165) or -1.5 Runs at +135
PacBell will be rockin tonight, the G-Men always play well at home (14-11) in front of their sold out crowds. They will be led by starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner (5-4, 3.14 ERA), and have won three of their last four games. The Cubs (18-32) are putrid and are even worse on the road (6-17). To make matters worse for the Cubbies, Paul Maholm (4-3, 4.62 ERA) takes the mound, he's givin up 11 earned runs in his last three starts. Dig deeper: the Cubs are a ML worst 2-9 against lefty starters while SF is 10-5 vs southpaws. Take the Giants at the money line (-165) to be safe.
OVER 9.5 Runs Total - Boston Red Sox at Toronto B.Jays
I absolutely love taking the OVER with Bucholz (4-2, 7.19 ERA) and the Red Sox. For some reason, the Sox give him mad run support. They play the Jays in Toronto, a true hitters park, against the righty Henderson Alvarez (3-4, 3.56 ERA). Alvarez has been hit hard recently, allowing 28 hits and 12 runs in his last three starts. Both of these bullpens have been terrible this season so they shouldn't help either. Take the OVER!!
Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals (-165) or -1.5 Runs at +130
Take Strasburg (5-1, 2.64 ERA) and the Nats. Washington is 15-8 at home and riding high in first place in the NL East. The Braves are throwing Minor (2-4, 6.98 ERA), who has allowed 35 earned runs in his last six starts. He stinks. This could get real ugly, go with the Nats to cover the 1.5 runs. If you are nervous, then take it straight up (-165).
Chicago Cubs at SF Giants (-165) or -1.5 Runs at +135
PacBell will be rockin tonight, the G-Men always play well at home (14-11) in front of their sold out crowds. They will be led by starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner (5-4, 3.14 ERA), and have won three of their last four games. The Cubs (18-32) are putrid and are even worse on the road (6-17). To make matters worse for the Cubbies, Paul Maholm (4-3, 4.62 ERA) takes the mound, he's givin up 11 earned runs in his last three starts. Dig deeper: the Cubs are a ML worst 2-9 against lefty starters while SF is 10-5 vs southpaws. Take the Giants at the money line (-165) to be safe.
OVER 9.5 Runs Total - Boston Red Sox at Toronto B.Jays
I absolutely love taking the OVER with Bucholz (4-2, 7.19 ERA) and the Red Sox. For some reason, the Sox give him mad run support. They play the Jays in Toronto, a true hitters park, against the righty Henderson Alvarez (3-4, 3.56 ERA). Alvarez has been hit hard recently, allowing 28 hits and 12 runs in his last three starts. Both of these bullpens have been terrible this season so they shouldn't help either. Take the OVER!!
Monday, April 23, 2012
NL MLB Preview 2012
NL MLB Preview 2012
NL West
1. Arizona D-Backs - Kirk Gibson is one heck of a manager. His staff has developed their young players way faster than anyone could have imagined, leading them to the NL West title last year. The Snakes are young and talented. I'm a big fan of OFs Justin Upton and Chris Young. Their bullpen is solid, but SS Stephen Drew will be the key--he has to live up to the hype and stay healthy.
2. LA Dodgers - MVP Matt Kemp is the best, yeah I know that Braun won the honors last year but Kemp is the true MVP. The guy is unreal. Ethier must stay in the lineup and be productive, his wrist injury was devastating last season. I would love the new management to add another quality bat before the trade deadline. Their pitching worries me. Kershaw is dominant, but the rest of the staff is old and potentially fatal.
3. SF Giants - Love the pitching, hate the hitting. Same motto as last year. The hitting has to be better, I like the addition of OF Melky Cabrera. Brandon Belt needs to be a factor, and Bochy must give him the ABs. Look for Matt Cain to dominate. The bullpen will probably decide their fate, and not having Brian Wilson will cost them.
4. Colorado Rockies - I have turned sour on the Rocks. Injuries just seem to surround them every year. Carlos Gonzalez has all the skills to be the next great NL player if he could ever stay in the lineup. There are serious pitching issues here. When old man Jaime Moyer is your #2 starter, you are in serious trouble. They traded away Ubaldo Jimenez last year and lack pitching depth. They are really the only team in the division that can't pitch well, so they must score a lot of runs. Yikes!
5. SD Padres - I would rank them lower if I could but there's only five teams in the division. What can you say about the team with the lowest payroll in MLB? They don't try to win games, and run their franchise like a business--just to make as much money as possible for their ownership which has been a disaster for a long time. They are rebuilding again, and trade away their best player practically every year. They don't know what they are doing and don't seem to care.
NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals - Remember these guys. They won the World Series last year over the Rangers. They lost Albert Pujols but added OF Carlos Beltran, and Beltran is great when he plays. The injury worries don't stop there. Pitchers Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright both have had health problems and first baseman Lance Berkman is old and is always banged up. David Freese is a rising slugger, watch him crush this year.
2. Milwaukee Brewers - Is it just me or does their lineup appear overly impressive? I really cannot solve this team, they seem like they should be better every year, but never put it all together. Pitchers Greinke and Marcum will be free agents at the end of the season and should have big seasons. Gallardo is an ace and Axford was tremendous last year. Where are all the victories? The heart of the order (Braun, Aramis Ramirez, Hart) all need to have big years for the Brew Crew to reach the postseason.
3. Cincy Reds - Oh, Dusty Baker. This guy doesn't really get it. I don't like their pitching or defense. Their two best pitchers are in the bullpen. They need Chapman to be more involved. He should be a starter. Their hitters strike out way too much, especially for that generous ballpark. Votto is obviously great, but who hits behind him?
4-6. Chicago Cubs, Pitt Pirates and Houston Astros. Bury these teams now. Three teams with no prayer of a winning season, let alone the playoffs. The Cubs are probably the most dissapointing out of the three, but they have no talent at all outside of SS Starlin Castro. The Pirates are always terrible, but at least they seem to be trying hard every year, and I can respect that. The Astros are rebuilding big time and it will take some time-- so be patient. I can appreciate their drastic changes, they basically gutted the whole franchise and started over.
NL East
1. Atlanta Braves - These guys overachieve nearly every year. I like their veteran leadership. Their bullpen is fantastic and will be key down the stretch. Venters and Kimbrel are easily overlooked, but don't make that mistake. Is this the year that OF Jason Heyward becomes the man in Atlanta? The Braves hope so.
2. Philly Phillies - No Ryan Howard and no Chase Utley. This lineup is old and seriously lacks power. It will be difficult for them to score runs all year long. Utley is no longer that great second baseman that you remember from a few years ago. Howard's achilles injury was bad and he could be out for most of the season, or come back at less than 100%. Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee aren't young and have thrown a lot of innings over the past few seasons. There are too many question marks this season for the Phils.
3. Miami Marlins - Ozzie Guillen will have his hands full this year in Miami. I really like the direction that the Marlins are headed. Mike Stanton is a physical specimen, watch him take batting practice, best BP hitter in baseball. He will hit bombs even though their new ballpark is gigantic. I think that it will take one more year for Guillen to get these guys all on the same page. Josh Johnson should also be better next year after missing most of past few seasons with arm problems, he sets the tone for their staff.
4. Washington Nats - This is the true wildcard team in the NL. Their pitching is very talented and has a lot of upside. I love their young power arms. Strasburg is special, but closer Drew Storen is on the DL for at least half the year and Brad Lidge cannot close games if they want to be taken seriously. Zimmerman is their only real threat on offense, that's not a good sign. It will take a couple more years and a couple more bats for them to contend.
5. NY Mets - Not a good team. I really wonder if they trade 3B David Wright this year. They probably need to trade him in order to rebuild their franchise. I can easily envision a deal to the Angels for a large package of top prospects. If they are smart, then they will do it and ignore the NY media pressure. They are looking at a 3-5 year rebuilding process. Cross them off the list.
Wildcard: LA Dodgers over Milwaukee Brewers
NLDS: St. Louis Cards over LA Dodgers 4-2, and Arizona D-Backs over Atlanta Braves 4-3
NLCS: St. Louis Cards over Arizona D-Backs 4-1
NL West
1. Arizona D-Backs - Kirk Gibson is one heck of a manager. His staff has developed their young players way faster than anyone could have imagined, leading them to the NL West title last year. The Snakes are young and talented. I'm a big fan of OFs Justin Upton and Chris Young. Their bullpen is solid, but SS Stephen Drew will be the key--he has to live up to the hype and stay healthy.
2. LA Dodgers - MVP Matt Kemp is the best, yeah I know that Braun won the honors last year but Kemp is the true MVP. The guy is unreal. Ethier must stay in the lineup and be productive, his wrist injury was devastating last season. I would love the new management to add another quality bat before the trade deadline. Their pitching worries me. Kershaw is dominant, but the rest of the staff is old and potentially fatal.
3. SF Giants - Love the pitching, hate the hitting. Same motto as last year. The hitting has to be better, I like the addition of OF Melky Cabrera. Brandon Belt needs to be a factor, and Bochy must give him the ABs. Look for Matt Cain to dominate. The bullpen will probably decide their fate, and not having Brian Wilson will cost them.
4. Colorado Rockies - I have turned sour on the Rocks. Injuries just seem to surround them every year. Carlos Gonzalez has all the skills to be the next great NL player if he could ever stay in the lineup. There are serious pitching issues here. When old man Jaime Moyer is your #2 starter, you are in serious trouble. They traded away Ubaldo Jimenez last year and lack pitching depth. They are really the only team in the division that can't pitch well, so they must score a lot of runs. Yikes!
5. SD Padres - I would rank them lower if I could but there's only five teams in the division. What can you say about the team with the lowest payroll in MLB? They don't try to win games, and run their franchise like a business--just to make as much money as possible for their ownership which has been a disaster for a long time. They are rebuilding again, and trade away their best player practically every year. They don't know what they are doing and don't seem to care.
NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals - Remember these guys. They won the World Series last year over the Rangers. They lost Albert Pujols but added OF Carlos Beltran, and Beltran is great when he plays. The injury worries don't stop there. Pitchers Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright both have had health problems and first baseman Lance Berkman is old and is always banged up. David Freese is a rising slugger, watch him crush this year.
2. Milwaukee Brewers - Is it just me or does their lineup appear overly impressive? I really cannot solve this team, they seem like they should be better every year, but never put it all together. Pitchers Greinke and Marcum will be free agents at the end of the season and should have big seasons. Gallardo is an ace and Axford was tremendous last year. Where are all the victories? The heart of the order (Braun, Aramis Ramirez, Hart) all need to have big years for the Brew Crew to reach the postseason.
3. Cincy Reds - Oh, Dusty Baker. This guy doesn't really get it. I don't like their pitching or defense. Their two best pitchers are in the bullpen. They need Chapman to be more involved. He should be a starter. Their hitters strike out way too much, especially for that generous ballpark. Votto is obviously great, but who hits behind him?
4-6. Chicago Cubs, Pitt Pirates and Houston Astros. Bury these teams now. Three teams with no prayer of a winning season, let alone the playoffs. The Cubs are probably the most dissapointing out of the three, but they have no talent at all outside of SS Starlin Castro. The Pirates are always terrible, but at least they seem to be trying hard every year, and I can respect that. The Astros are rebuilding big time and it will take some time-- so be patient. I can appreciate their drastic changes, they basically gutted the whole franchise and started over.
NL East
1. Atlanta Braves - These guys overachieve nearly every year. I like their veteran leadership. Their bullpen is fantastic and will be key down the stretch. Venters and Kimbrel are easily overlooked, but don't make that mistake. Is this the year that OF Jason Heyward becomes the man in Atlanta? The Braves hope so.
2. Philly Phillies - No Ryan Howard and no Chase Utley. This lineup is old and seriously lacks power. It will be difficult for them to score runs all year long. Utley is no longer that great second baseman that you remember from a few years ago. Howard's achilles injury was bad and he could be out for most of the season, or come back at less than 100%. Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee aren't young and have thrown a lot of innings over the past few seasons. There are too many question marks this season for the Phils.
3. Miami Marlins - Ozzie Guillen will have his hands full this year in Miami. I really like the direction that the Marlins are headed. Mike Stanton is a physical specimen, watch him take batting practice, best BP hitter in baseball. He will hit bombs even though their new ballpark is gigantic. I think that it will take one more year for Guillen to get these guys all on the same page. Josh Johnson should also be better next year after missing most of past few seasons with arm problems, he sets the tone for their staff.
4. Washington Nats - This is the true wildcard team in the NL. Their pitching is very talented and has a lot of upside. I love their young power arms. Strasburg is special, but closer Drew Storen is on the DL for at least half the year and Brad Lidge cannot close games if they want to be taken seriously. Zimmerman is their only real threat on offense, that's not a good sign. It will take a couple more years and a couple more bats for them to contend.
5. NY Mets - Not a good team. I really wonder if they trade 3B David Wright this year. They probably need to trade him in order to rebuild their franchise. I can easily envision a deal to the Angels for a large package of top prospects. If they are smart, then they will do it and ignore the NY media pressure. They are looking at a 3-5 year rebuilding process. Cross them off the list.
Wildcard: LA Dodgers over Milwaukee Brewers
NLDS: St. Louis Cards over LA Dodgers 4-2, and Arizona D-Backs over Atlanta Braves 4-3
NLCS: St. Louis Cards over Arizona D-Backs 4-1
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
MLB 2012 AL Predictions
MLB 2012 AL Predictions
AL West
1. LA Angels - Pujols does make that big of a difference. Watch for Howie Kendrick and Erick Aybar to break out. The return of Morales and Walden's ability to close will be crucial.
2. Texas Rangers - So much talent, but so many guys will be free agents at the end of the season. Hopefully Ron Washington can keep the club focused on winning and not their next pay check. Excited to see Yu Darvish be all that he can be. He's already the ace of the staff, could be Cy Young if all goes well.
3. Seattle Mariners - Yes, their offense sucks but 2B Dustin Ackley can rake. Write it down. He will lead this team out of the cellar. I just hope that they don't trade away Felix at the trade deadline, he's special and they will need him if they ever want to compete. This could be Ichiro's last year in MLB if he decides to return to Japan at season's end.
4. Oakland A's - These guys surrendered in the offseason when they dealt away pitchers Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill for prospects (again). Their lineup is putrid, Coco Crisp hits third, ewww. I like OF Yoenis Cespedes but he has no help at all. This team has no talent and play in the best division in baseball. Good luck fools.
AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers - You try facing Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder back-to-back and see how many baseballs leave the park. They are young and can bash. They will need Boesch and Young to succeed in order to see good pitches. I believe that they will. Verlander only won the Cy Young and MVP last year---amazing.
2. KC Royals - The new-look Royals can score runs. They will score and compete this year. Gordon and Hosmer will blossum into household names. If they had any pitching at all there would be a lot more hype surrounding them. Losing Soria also won't help their bullpen which is always important.
3. Cleveland Indians - Grady Sizemore is out again. Their lineup is led by SS Azdrubal Cabrera, not a good sign for the Tribe. I like Masterson and underrated closer Chris Perez. If Ubaldo Jimenez can find his stuff of 2010 then they will contend for second place. Catcher/DH/1B Carlos Santana looks great in BP but needs to hit over .239 this year.
4. Minnesota Twins - Is there a more injury prone team than the Twins? Mauer, Morneau and Liriano seem to get hurt every year. I think that they bounce back this year and could easily finish right behind the Tigers. The addition of Willingham in left field will pay dividends, at least they signed him after losing Cuddyer and Kubel.
5. Chicago White Sox - New Manager Robin Ventura will remember two things from baseball....managing is easier from the stands and never charge the mound on Nolan Ryan. Ventura will have a rude awakening this year. The Sox dealt away closer Sergio Santos and will try Matt Thornton again. That spells Rolaids.
AL East
1. NY Yankees - They will score runs against anyone. Cano is unreal, but I wish that they would hit Gardner in the leadoff spot. Gardner adds a special dimension (speed) to the Yanks and they need to realize that before it is too late. Maybe an injury to Jeter will force Girardi's hand. Also, watch for the Yanks to deal if they need to add another piece in order to make a run in postseason.
2. TB Rays - Evan Longoria needs to step it up this season. He is their leader and their offense depends on him to produce. I think that he's due. I like bringing back Carlos Pena at first but he needs to stop strinking out so much. It will be a treat to see OF Desomnd Jennings and pitcher Matt Moore develop this year. The Rays have stock piled so much talent.
3. Toronto Blue Jays - That's right, the Jays will finish ahead of the BoSox. The Jays could probably battle for the NL crown if they were in the NL East instead. Gotta give the Jays credit for continuously rebuilding and adding young stars (Lawrie, Morrow, Rasmus). Romero has developed well and secretly has nasty stuff.
4. Boston Red Sox - Their pitching is a mess. I mean, it's really bad, across the board. Their new closer Andrew Bailey will have thumb surgery and will already miss half the season. So Mark Melancon will probably close now, he hardly held down the Astros closing duties last season. OF Carl Crawford is hurt again and will miss a month as well. This team will be in trouble and the Boston faithful has never been bashful about letting their sports teams know how they feel. Trouble is brewing.
5. Baltimore Orioles - Bad Pitching and Poor Hitting will put any team in the basement. The future still isn't bright in Baltimore, these guys do NOT scout well. Their picks are in the top ten every year and they never find players. Truly pathetic. Buck Showwalter tries hard but never really has a chance. Always next year Buck.
Wild Card - Texas over Rays
ALDS - Angels over Yankees 4-1 and Texas over Tigers 4-3
ALCS - Angels over Rangers 4-2
AL West
1. LA Angels - Pujols does make that big of a difference. Watch for Howie Kendrick and Erick Aybar to break out. The return of Morales and Walden's ability to close will be crucial.
2. Texas Rangers - So much talent, but so many guys will be free agents at the end of the season. Hopefully Ron Washington can keep the club focused on winning and not their next pay check. Excited to see Yu Darvish be all that he can be. He's already the ace of the staff, could be Cy Young if all goes well.
3. Seattle Mariners - Yes, their offense sucks but 2B Dustin Ackley can rake. Write it down. He will lead this team out of the cellar. I just hope that they don't trade away Felix at the trade deadline, he's special and they will need him if they ever want to compete. This could be Ichiro's last year in MLB if he decides to return to Japan at season's end.
4. Oakland A's - These guys surrendered in the offseason when they dealt away pitchers Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill for prospects (again). Their lineup is putrid, Coco Crisp hits third, ewww. I like OF Yoenis Cespedes but he has no help at all. This team has no talent and play in the best division in baseball. Good luck fools.
AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers - You try facing Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder back-to-back and see how many baseballs leave the park. They are young and can bash. They will need Boesch and Young to succeed in order to see good pitches. I believe that they will. Verlander only won the Cy Young and MVP last year---amazing.
2. KC Royals - The new-look Royals can score runs. They will score and compete this year. Gordon and Hosmer will blossum into household names. If they had any pitching at all there would be a lot more hype surrounding them. Losing Soria also won't help their bullpen which is always important.
3. Cleveland Indians - Grady Sizemore is out again. Their lineup is led by SS Azdrubal Cabrera, not a good sign for the Tribe. I like Masterson and underrated closer Chris Perez. If Ubaldo Jimenez can find his stuff of 2010 then they will contend for second place. Catcher/DH/1B Carlos Santana looks great in BP but needs to hit over .239 this year.
4. Minnesota Twins - Is there a more injury prone team than the Twins? Mauer, Morneau and Liriano seem to get hurt every year. I think that they bounce back this year and could easily finish right behind the Tigers. The addition of Willingham in left field will pay dividends, at least they signed him after losing Cuddyer and Kubel.
5. Chicago White Sox - New Manager Robin Ventura will remember two things from baseball....managing is easier from the stands and never charge the mound on Nolan Ryan. Ventura will have a rude awakening this year. The Sox dealt away closer Sergio Santos and will try Matt Thornton again. That spells Rolaids.
AL East
1. NY Yankees - They will score runs against anyone. Cano is unreal, but I wish that they would hit Gardner in the leadoff spot. Gardner adds a special dimension (speed) to the Yanks and they need to realize that before it is too late. Maybe an injury to Jeter will force Girardi's hand. Also, watch for the Yanks to deal if they need to add another piece in order to make a run in postseason.
2. TB Rays - Evan Longoria needs to step it up this season. He is their leader and their offense depends on him to produce. I think that he's due. I like bringing back Carlos Pena at first but he needs to stop strinking out so much. It will be a treat to see OF Desomnd Jennings and pitcher Matt Moore develop this year. The Rays have stock piled so much talent.
3. Toronto Blue Jays - That's right, the Jays will finish ahead of the BoSox. The Jays could probably battle for the NL crown if they were in the NL East instead. Gotta give the Jays credit for continuously rebuilding and adding young stars (Lawrie, Morrow, Rasmus). Romero has developed well and secretly has nasty stuff.
4. Boston Red Sox - Their pitching is a mess. I mean, it's really bad, across the board. Their new closer Andrew Bailey will have thumb surgery and will already miss half the season. So Mark Melancon will probably close now, he hardly held down the Astros closing duties last season. OF Carl Crawford is hurt again and will miss a month as well. This team will be in trouble and the Boston faithful has never been bashful about letting their sports teams know how they feel. Trouble is brewing.
5. Baltimore Orioles - Bad Pitching and Poor Hitting will put any team in the basement. The future still isn't bright in Baltimore, these guys do NOT scout well. Their picks are in the top ten every year and they never find players. Truly pathetic. Buck Showwalter tries hard but never really has a chance. Always next year Buck.
Wild Card - Texas over Rays
ALDS - Angels over Yankees 4-1 and Texas over Tigers 4-3
ALCS - Angels over Rangers 4-2
Sunday, February 5, 2012
Super Bowl or Bust!
Super Bowl or Bust!!!
NY Giants vs NE Patriots (-3) - Over/Under 53
So I wrote this long detailed two page breakdown yesterday and thought that I posted it.......but it never posted and so now I have jack shit for you (except this short breakdown, it's alll that you will need).
Summary points:
NY Giants are a better team
NY Giants are playing better football
NE Patriots' most valuable weapon, TE Rob Gronkowski is seriously injured and wouldn't be playing in any other game except for the Super Bowl. He is the key, and I don't think he is truely ready and the Giants will know this and try to jam him at the line.
Tom Brady has become a check down QB because he has NO deep weapons.
The NY Giants' pass rush is the best four-man group in football, and they will bring it today.
JPP is a beast, be careful TBrady, be real careful.
NY Giants should be able to run outside with RB Bradshaw and then abuse the Patriots with play-action passes.
I hate Eli Manning, but the jackass has been playing his best football and should have no problem with the vulnerable NE secondary.
Conclusion: There is no way that this line should be 3 points and the bookies know it, but cannot change the line because of the amount of hedging that would occur if people could take the Giants plus 3 then the Patriots -2. It would be absolutely disastrous for VEGAS. They made this line as if both teams were playing at full strength. The Pats have the revenge factor and I can see them winning late, but nothing justifies the FG spread. Nothing. TAKE THE GIANTS plus the points and take them asap, better yet bet your friends and play without the juice (10-15%). Why should the bookies get the free cash when people will take both sides in a large degree. So that's it---GIANTS!!
The Over/Under is really a toss up and nobody wants to see a low-scoring game, so I advise to avoid it. Good Luck and go G-Men!!
NY Giants vs NE Patriots (-3) - Over/Under 53
So I wrote this long detailed two page breakdown yesterday and thought that I posted it.......but it never posted and so now I have jack shit for you (except this short breakdown, it's alll that you will need).
Summary points:
NY Giants are a better team
NY Giants are playing better football
NE Patriots' most valuable weapon, TE Rob Gronkowski is seriously injured and wouldn't be playing in any other game except for the Super Bowl. He is the key, and I don't think he is truely ready and the Giants will know this and try to jam him at the line.
Tom Brady has become a check down QB because he has NO deep weapons.
The NY Giants' pass rush is the best four-man group in football, and they will bring it today.
JPP is a beast, be careful TBrady, be real careful.
NY Giants should be able to run outside with RB Bradshaw and then abuse the Patriots with play-action passes.
I hate Eli Manning, but the jackass has been playing his best football and should have no problem with the vulnerable NE secondary.
Conclusion: There is no way that this line should be 3 points and the bookies know it, but cannot change the line because of the amount of hedging that would occur if people could take the Giants plus 3 then the Patriots -2. It would be absolutely disastrous for VEGAS. They made this line as if both teams were playing at full strength. The Pats have the revenge factor and I can see them winning late, but nothing justifies the FG spread. Nothing. TAKE THE GIANTS plus the points and take them asap, better yet bet your friends and play without the juice (10-15%). Why should the bookies get the free cash when people will take both sides in a large degree. So that's it---GIANTS!!
The Over/Under is really a toss up and nobody wants to see a low-scoring game, so I advise to avoid it. Good Luck and go G-Men!!
Sunday, January 22, 2012
NFL Conference Title Games
AFC Title Game 12pm - Baltimore Ravens at NE Patriots (-7) Over/Under 50
This game has been inevitable since Big Ben went down with that ugly foot injury while playing the Browns in week 13. Baltimore clearly was the beneficiary of the Steelers' misery and rode that to the #2 seed in the AFC. The Ravens took care of the Texans last weekend 20-13, but really looked terrible in the process (only 227 total yards). QB Joe Flacco simply isn't good enough and I honestly hate their play calling, yes I'm looking at you OC Cam Cameron! Another problem that I have with them is that---the Ravens suck on the road. Baltimore lost at Seattle, San Diego, Tennessee and Jacksonville this season. You simply cannot trust them.
The Patriots pounded the Denver Broncos 45-10 last Saturday, shredding the Broncos threw the air for 363 yards and 6 TD passes from Brady. The Ravens play much tougher defense and have held Brady to a 71.4 passer rating in his five games against them throughout his career. That's definite cause for concern, but these Patriots feature more weapons than those other teams. TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez have been unstoppable this season and the Ravens don't match up well against tight ends. The Raven's linebackers are great against the run, but won't be quick enough to stop the versatile Patriot TEs. Bill Belicheck is too smart and Tom Brady is too good to lose this game.
Go with the Patriots minus the points!!
NFC Title Game 3:30 pm - NY Giants at SF 49ers (-2.5) Over/Under 42
Get ready for a defensive smackdown. This game looks like it will shape up to be an old school 80's style showdown. The 49ers allowed an average of 10.8 points a game this year at home, and will be playing with a lot of emotion trying to reach their first Super Bowl since 1994. I really think that they will dial down the game plan and keep things simple for QB Alex Smith. We all saw what a weapon TE Vernon Davis has become and he will be the key to the SF offense again this week. SF Coach Jim Harbaugh was the best in the NFL this year but will be facing his toughest test all year this weekend. He will find ways to get Davis the ball in space. I'd like to see him use RB Kendall Hunter more, and I think we will see him more involved (my personal sleeper). He is a underrated playmaker with speed, watch him.
Nobody has played better football in the last month than the NY Football Giants. Their defense has been ridiculously good, allowing just 12 points a game over the past four contests. They have also managed to accumulate 17 sacks over that span, including four last week in their 37-20 beatdown of the Packers. Aaron Rodgers was consistently scrambling and never got comfortable in the pocket. The Giants should have no problem getting to Smith on Sunday. The only way that the Giants lose this game is if the 49ers turn the game on special teams with big plays.
Let's double-down on the Giants and the Under!!
This game has been inevitable since Big Ben went down with that ugly foot injury while playing the Browns in week 13. Baltimore clearly was the beneficiary of the Steelers' misery and rode that to the #2 seed in the AFC. The Ravens took care of the Texans last weekend 20-13, but really looked terrible in the process (only 227 total yards). QB Joe Flacco simply isn't good enough and I honestly hate their play calling, yes I'm looking at you OC Cam Cameron! Another problem that I have with them is that---the Ravens suck on the road. Baltimore lost at Seattle, San Diego, Tennessee and Jacksonville this season. You simply cannot trust them.
The Patriots pounded the Denver Broncos 45-10 last Saturday, shredding the Broncos threw the air for 363 yards and 6 TD passes from Brady. The Ravens play much tougher defense and have held Brady to a 71.4 passer rating in his five games against them throughout his career. That's definite cause for concern, but these Patriots feature more weapons than those other teams. TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez have been unstoppable this season and the Ravens don't match up well against tight ends. The Raven's linebackers are great against the run, but won't be quick enough to stop the versatile Patriot TEs. Bill Belicheck is too smart and Tom Brady is too good to lose this game.
Go with the Patriots minus the points!!
NFC Title Game 3:30 pm - NY Giants at SF 49ers (-2.5) Over/Under 42
Get ready for a defensive smackdown. This game looks like it will shape up to be an old school 80's style showdown. The 49ers allowed an average of 10.8 points a game this year at home, and will be playing with a lot of emotion trying to reach their first Super Bowl since 1994. I really think that they will dial down the game plan and keep things simple for QB Alex Smith. We all saw what a weapon TE Vernon Davis has become and he will be the key to the SF offense again this week. SF Coach Jim Harbaugh was the best in the NFL this year but will be facing his toughest test all year this weekend. He will find ways to get Davis the ball in space. I'd like to see him use RB Kendall Hunter more, and I think we will see him more involved (my personal sleeper). He is a underrated playmaker with speed, watch him.
Nobody has played better football in the last month than the NY Football Giants. Their defense has been ridiculously good, allowing just 12 points a game over the past four contests. They have also managed to accumulate 17 sacks over that span, including four last week in their 37-20 beatdown of the Packers. Aaron Rodgers was consistently scrambling and never got comfortable in the pocket. The Giants should have no problem getting to Smith on Sunday. The only way that the Giants lose this game is if the 49ers turn the game on special teams with big plays.
Let's double-down on the Giants and the Under!!
Sunday, January 15, 2012
NY Giants at GB Packers
NY Giants at GB Packers (-7.5) Over/Under 53
Sorry but this has to be quick, so let's get down to it.
The G-Men look to avenge Week 12 Loss to the Packers (38-35) after dominating the Atlanta Falcons at home last week 24-2. Fact: The Giants have been balling on defense during the last three weeks against good teams (Jets, Cowboys, Falcons) and seem to be playing their best football of the season. They will need to "bring it" against the Champion Packers in Green Bay today. Fact: The Packers are the Best Team in the NFL, and will have stud WR Greg Jennings back in the starting lineup. Fact: The Packers are playing at home, where they won every game this season---by an average of 19 points. Fact: The Giants weakness resides in their secondary. Fact: Nobody can stop the Packer passing attack (Ok, maybe KC did it for 3 quarters during the Packers only loss this season). Fact: The Packers Defense is relatively soft and allowed the most passing yards in the NFL this season (299.8 yards/game). Watch for the Packers to take advantage of Eli Manning mistakes and lapses in NYG deep zone pass coverages to dictate the tempo and force the G-Men to play catch up in the second half.
Decision: The Packers will top the Giants in a high scoring game.
Lock of the Day: Take the OVER 53!!
Sorry but this has to be quick, so let's get down to it.
The G-Men look to avenge Week 12 Loss to the Packers (38-35) after dominating the Atlanta Falcons at home last week 24-2. Fact: The Giants have been balling on defense during the last three weeks against good teams (Jets, Cowboys, Falcons) and seem to be playing their best football of the season. They will need to "bring it" against the Champion Packers in Green Bay today. Fact: The Packers are the Best Team in the NFL, and will have stud WR Greg Jennings back in the starting lineup. Fact: The Packers are playing at home, where they won every game this season---by an average of 19 points. Fact: The Giants weakness resides in their secondary. Fact: Nobody can stop the Packer passing attack (Ok, maybe KC did it for 3 quarters during the Packers only loss this season). Fact: The Packers Defense is relatively soft and allowed the most passing yards in the NFL this season (299.8 yards/game). Watch for the Packers to take advantage of Eli Manning mistakes and lapses in NYG deep zone pass coverages to dictate the tempo and force the G-Men to play catch up in the second half.
Decision: The Packers will top the Giants in a high scoring game.
Lock of the Day: Take the OVER 53!!
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
NFL First Glance - Week 15
First Glance at the NFL Primetime Lines
1. Let's start with the Thursday Night game--Jax Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons (-11) Over/Under 42.
This game kind of reminds me of the MNF game last night, Rams at Seahawks. Terrible team goes on the road in primetime to get obliterated against a much better opponent. The Jaguars are putrid but somehow destroyed the Bucs last weekend 41-14. I really cannot understand that at all--but that's how bad the Bucs are right now. The Jags still cannot pass the ball and they have been nicked up on defense over the past month. The Falcons need this game for the playoffs and are playing at home. It's impossible to go against that combo vs one of the league's worst teams. Go with the Dirty Birds to cover the 11!!
2. Next up is the Saturday Night battle --Dallas Cowboys (-7) at TB Bucs Over/Under 46.
Yes, I hate the Cowboys, but I actually despise the Bucs more. The Bucs have lost seven straight games, and have only covered the spread once in those seven games. BAD. QB Josh Freeman is banged up and the team is literally in revolt. How did this happen so fast? Young players love to win, but spiral out of control during the tough times. They have lost faith and so have I in their ability to keep it close. In addition to the TB problems, Cowboy head coach Garrett needs this win to keep their playoff hopes alive. I'll take the Boys minus the points, but I love the six-point teaser taking the Boys to minus 1 and the OVER 40 points scored. Four of the last five TB games have gone OVER, while allowing an average of 38 points in those four losses.
That's it for now, more later in the week. Good luck fools!
1. Let's start with the Thursday Night game--Jax Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons (-11) Over/Under 42.
This game kind of reminds me of the MNF game last night, Rams at Seahawks. Terrible team goes on the road in primetime to get obliterated against a much better opponent. The Jaguars are putrid but somehow destroyed the Bucs last weekend 41-14. I really cannot understand that at all--but that's how bad the Bucs are right now. The Jags still cannot pass the ball and they have been nicked up on defense over the past month. The Falcons need this game for the playoffs and are playing at home. It's impossible to go against that combo vs one of the league's worst teams. Go with the Dirty Birds to cover the 11!!
2. Next up is the Saturday Night battle --Dallas Cowboys (-7) at TB Bucs Over/Under 46.
Yes, I hate the Cowboys, but I actually despise the Bucs more. The Bucs have lost seven straight games, and have only covered the spread once in those seven games. BAD. QB Josh Freeman is banged up and the team is literally in revolt. How did this happen so fast? Young players love to win, but spiral out of control during the tough times. They have lost faith and so have I in their ability to keep it close. In addition to the TB problems, Cowboy head coach Garrett needs this win to keep their playoff hopes alive. I'll take the Boys minus the points, but I love the six-point teaser taking the Boys to minus 1 and the OVER 40 points scored. Four of the last five TB games have gone OVER, while allowing an average of 38 points in those four losses.
That's it for now, more later in the week. Good luck fools!
Saturday, December 10, 2011
NFL Week #14
NFL Fantasy Playoffs
1. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers.
We all love the Panthers and huge their huge turnaround this season. Cam Newton has been remarkable and Steve Smith somehow found the fountain of youth. But C'mon man, they are playing the Falcons in a must win game. Some of you might not remember that the Falcons were the #1 seed in the NFC last year, but re-think it. The Falcons have some serious talent on their roster. The return of WR Julio Jones should be key in allowing Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White to dominate the middle of the field. The Panthers are PUTRID on defense, and they are exceptionally terrible at stopping the run. I see a lot of RB Mike Turner on Sunday, and a lot of easy rushing yards. The line might rise to 3, but this should be a two score game. Go with the Falcons!!
2. Chicago at Denver Broncos (-3).
The Broncos are one of my favorites and have won five in a row. Tebow has gone 6-1 as their starting QB and has been improving each week as a passer. I watched the Broncos beat the Vikings last week--and I really liked what I saw. The Broncos are playing with Passion, these guys believe that they will win each game. It's amazing what Tebow has done in so little time with their entire franchise. The Bears are a mess without Cutler and lost RB Matt Forte last week (out 2-5 weeks). The Bears lost to the KC Chiefs last week at home, this is not gonna be their rebound game. Go with the Broncos to win and cover. I even like the UNDER 37 as well.
3. Buffalo Bills at SD Chargers (-7) - Over/Under 48
My home team Chargers finally woke up last Monday night at Jacksonville. Coach Norv Turner actually looked alive and focused. He stayed aggressive and re-discovered his vertical passing game. RB Ryan Mathews has looked great and WR Malcolm Floyd has returned giving V-Jax some help. They are playing a Bills team spiraling out of control, losing five straight games. The Bills defense has really been exposed and stud RB Fred Jackson is out for the season. The pressure on Norv will dictate a high scoring game. Take the OVER 48 and the Boltz to cover the spread.
4. SF 49ers (-4.5) at Arizona Cards - Over/Under 38.5
This is gonna be quick..........Take the Under!!! The Under has gone in four of the five SF road games. The Cards games have also gone Under in four of their last five games and lost 23-7 at SF three weeks ago. It might be boring but it will finish UNDER 38.5!!
5. NY Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5).
Sunday Night Game should be a great battle of top NFC East teams. Both teams are desperate for a win and the lead in the division. Dallas is 5-1 at home this year while the Giants are only 3-3 on the road. The Giants have lost four straight games and the Cowboys should welcome back WR Miles Austin to the field. Logic says to take the Boys, but everything else is screaming Giants. I think that it will be a fantastic finish. Take the Giants and the points!! Side note--take the Giants to score Over 23 Points, they often fall behind early then throw down the field for big plays.
1. Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers.
We all love the Panthers and huge their huge turnaround this season. Cam Newton has been remarkable and Steve Smith somehow found the fountain of youth. But C'mon man, they are playing the Falcons in a must win game. Some of you might not remember that the Falcons were the #1 seed in the NFC last year, but re-think it. The Falcons have some serious talent on their roster. The return of WR Julio Jones should be key in allowing Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White to dominate the middle of the field. The Panthers are PUTRID on defense, and they are exceptionally terrible at stopping the run. I see a lot of RB Mike Turner on Sunday, and a lot of easy rushing yards. The line might rise to 3, but this should be a two score game. Go with the Falcons!!
2. Chicago at Denver Broncos (-3).
The Broncos are one of my favorites and have won five in a row. Tebow has gone 6-1 as their starting QB and has been improving each week as a passer. I watched the Broncos beat the Vikings last week--and I really liked what I saw. The Broncos are playing with Passion, these guys believe that they will win each game. It's amazing what Tebow has done in so little time with their entire franchise. The Bears are a mess without Cutler and lost RB Matt Forte last week (out 2-5 weeks). The Bears lost to the KC Chiefs last week at home, this is not gonna be their rebound game. Go with the Broncos to win and cover. I even like the UNDER 37 as well.
3. Buffalo Bills at SD Chargers (-7) - Over/Under 48
My home team Chargers finally woke up last Monday night at Jacksonville. Coach Norv Turner actually looked alive and focused. He stayed aggressive and re-discovered his vertical passing game. RB Ryan Mathews has looked great and WR Malcolm Floyd has returned giving V-Jax some help. They are playing a Bills team spiraling out of control, losing five straight games. The Bills defense has really been exposed and stud RB Fred Jackson is out for the season. The pressure on Norv will dictate a high scoring game. Take the OVER 48 and the Boltz to cover the spread.
4. SF 49ers (-4.5) at Arizona Cards - Over/Under 38.5
This is gonna be quick..........Take the Under!!! The Under has gone in four of the five SF road games. The Cards games have also gone Under in four of their last five games and lost 23-7 at SF three weeks ago. It might be boring but it will finish UNDER 38.5!!
5. NY Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5).
Sunday Night Game should be a great battle of top NFC East teams. Both teams are desperate for a win and the lead in the division. Dallas is 5-1 at home this year while the Giants are only 3-3 on the road. The Giants have lost four straight games and the Cowboys should welcome back WR Miles Austin to the field. Logic says to take the Boys, but everything else is screaming Giants. I think that it will be a fantastic finish. Take the Giants and the points!! Side note--take the Giants to score Over 23 Points, they often fall behind early then throw down the field for big plays.
Saturday, December 3, 2011
NCAA Big Sat
NCAA Football
1. So Miss vs Houston Cougars (-13.5) at Houston.
The Cougars (12-0) look to stay alive for a huge BCS bowl game by staying undefeated against Southern Miss (10-2). Houston leads the nation in yards per game and scoring (52.7 ppg). Houston has been dominating teams all year long, especially lately. Southern Miss's strength is their run defense, which puts them in trouble facing QB Keenum and the pass-heavy Cougars. Southern Miss was 4-2 on the road this year and 7-5 ATS for the season. Houston was 10-2 ATS and 6-0 ATS on the year. Houston knows how important this game is for their program and Southern Miss really isn't all that good. Take Houston!!
2. Oklahoma Sooners at Okla State (-3.5)
Yes, I like the OSU offense and their style of play is phenomenal to watch on TV. But, I really worry about them against an experienced Sooner squad. These teams are very similar across the board, and I believe that the Oklahoma grit will prevail. I trust coach Stoops more than I believe in Gundy. The Sooner coaches watched that OSU loss at Iowa State two weeks ago and I'm sure they found OSU's weakness---RUN the ball. Iowa State rushed for 192 yards in that game and OSU has given up 186.6 per game. OSU was 3-2 ATS at home this season. Go with the Sooners and the points!! Also , like the Sooners point line at 34--go Over 34!
3. BYU (-8) at Hawaii Rainbows
The BYU Cougars travel to the islands to finish the year against the once fierce fighting rainbows. Hawaii had been dominant at home in recent years, but have really slipped this season. Hawaii needs to win this game to reach the Hawaii Bowl. Hawaii has lost three of their last four games, and has been flip-flopping QBS in the process. Ouch, that's a definite red flag. BYU has won seven of their last eight games and finished 7-4 ATS (3-1 ATS on the road). The Cougars are an older team with better coaching and better athletes. I really like the BYU O-line and think they will wear down the Rainbows. Take BYU!!!
1. So Miss vs Houston Cougars (-13.5) at Houston.
The Cougars (12-0) look to stay alive for a huge BCS bowl game by staying undefeated against Southern Miss (10-2). Houston leads the nation in yards per game and scoring (52.7 ppg). Houston has been dominating teams all year long, especially lately. Southern Miss's strength is their run defense, which puts them in trouble facing QB Keenum and the pass-heavy Cougars. Southern Miss was 4-2 on the road this year and 7-5 ATS for the season. Houston was 10-2 ATS and 6-0 ATS on the year. Houston knows how important this game is for their program and Southern Miss really isn't all that good. Take Houston!!
2. Oklahoma Sooners at Okla State (-3.5)
Yes, I like the OSU offense and their style of play is phenomenal to watch on TV. But, I really worry about them against an experienced Sooner squad. These teams are very similar across the board, and I believe that the Oklahoma grit will prevail. I trust coach Stoops more than I believe in Gundy. The Sooner coaches watched that OSU loss at Iowa State two weeks ago and I'm sure they found OSU's weakness---RUN the ball. Iowa State rushed for 192 yards in that game and OSU has given up 186.6 per game. OSU was 3-2 ATS at home this season. Go with the Sooners and the points!! Also , like the Sooners point line at 34--go Over 34!
3. BYU (-8) at Hawaii Rainbows
The BYU Cougars travel to the islands to finish the year against the once fierce fighting rainbows. Hawaii had been dominant at home in recent years, but have really slipped this season. Hawaii needs to win this game to reach the Hawaii Bowl. Hawaii has lost three of their last four games, and has been flip-flopping QBS in the process. Ouch, that's a definite red flag. BYU has won seven of their last eight games and finished 7-4 ATS (3-1 ATS on the road). The Cougars are an older team with better coaching and better athletes. I really like the BYU O-line and think they will wear down the Rainbows. Take BYU!!!
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
NFL Reactions
NFL Reactions and Initial Thoughts
1. I will lead with the Packers because I feel like it and they have a fantastic trend this season. They pounded the Lions on Thanksgiving and were only 6 point favorites. Again, this week they are only 7 point favorites---jump on them again!! They play at Giants, who got dumped 49-24 last night vs the Saints.
2. Baltimore beat SF on two terrible calls (Chop block on the 73 yard TD pass to Ginn and the 50-Yard Pass interference on the Interception that led to a Raven FG, which should have been SF ball around midfield). That completely reversed this game completely, SF relies on it's play-calling and simply isn't the same team when they are behind by a couple of scores. Baltimore gets Cleveland this week and a 6.5 point spread--I like it.
3. Atlanta and Houston both won low-scoring games this past week. They face off this week in Houston and the number is 40. Houston and Atlanta have both hit their Unders 8 times in their first 11 games. I like it for a ninth time on Sunday with Houston using their 3rd string QB and Atlanta focusing on the run game.
4. The Patriots stomped on the Eagles 38-20 as my top pick for Sunday. The Patriots are rolling and will be playing the hapless Colts at home this week. The Colts lost their greatest chance at winning this season by losing to Carolina in Indy last Sunday 27-19. They plan on benching QB Painter for Dan Orlavsky, who greatest feat was running out of the endzone on his own accord while playing for Detroit before they cut him. This game smells like an absolute beatdown. Belicheck and Brady have no mercy and the 20-point spread could be eclipsed in the first quarter in NE. Get on the Pats while you can.
5. The Lions will try to rebound after losing to GB by visiting New Orleans. Ouch. The Saints dominated NYG Monday and have shown very little interest in running the ball, much like the Lions. The Lions have gone OVER in all five road games this year. This game should be a ridiculous shootout. Get on the OVER 55 asap.
1. I will lead with the Packers because I feel like it and they have a fantastic trend this season. They pounded the Lions on Thanksgiving and were only 6 point favorites. Again, this week they are only 7 point favorites---jump on them again!! They play at Giants, who got dumped 49-24 last night vs the Saints.
2. Baltimore beat SF on two terrible calls (Chop block on the 73 yard TD pass to Ginn and the 50-Yard Pass interference on the Interception that led to a Raven FG, which should have been SF ball around midfield). That completely reversed this game completely, SF relies on it's play-calling and simply isn't the same team when they are behind by a couple of scores. Baltimore gets Cleveland this week and a 6.5 point spread--I like it.
3. Atlanta and Houston both won low-scoring games this past week. They face off this week in Houston and the number is 40. Houston and Atlanta have both hit their Unders 8 times in their first 11 games. I like it for a ninth time on Sunday with Houston using their 3rd string QB and Atlanta focusing on the run game.
4. The Patriots stomped on the Eagles 38-20 as my top pick for Sunday. The Patriots are rolling and will be playing the hapless Colts at home this week. The Colts lost their greatest chance at winning this season by losing to Carolina in Indy last Sunday 27-19. They plan on benching QB Painter for Dan Orlavsky, who greatest feat was running out of the endzone on his own accord while playing for Detroit before they cut him. This game smells like an absolute beatdown. Belicheck and Brady have no mercy and the 20-point spread could be eclipsed in the first quarter in NE. Get on the Pats while you can.
5. The Lions will try to rebound after losing to GB by visiting New Orleans. Ouch. The Saints dominated NYG Monday and have shown very little interest in running the ball, much like the Lions. The Lions have gone OVER in all five road games this year. This game should be a ridiculous shootout. Get on the OVER 55 asap.
Sunday, November 27, 2011
NFL Big Sunday
Pigskin Picks
1. Cleveland Browns at Cincy Bengals (-7)-Over/Under 38
Let's make this easy, the Bengals are desperate to win this game and are at home. The Browns cannot score and will be without RB Peyton Hillis again. The Browns have averaged under 11 points a game over the last five contests. Their offensive line is battered and QB Colt Mccoy has been putrid. The Bengals are 7-2-1 ATS, and have only lost to the Ravens and Steelers in the last two months. They should have no problem with the Browns in Cincy. Take the Bengals minus the points!
2. Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks (-3)-Over/Under 38
Washington is in turmoil and goes across the country to battle the suddenly decent Seahawks. That's a recipe for disaster. The Redskins are 1-4 on the road this year and have lost six games in a row overall. Seattle is 6-3-1 ATS this year and 4-1 ATS at home. They are finally healthy and rolling after starting the season slow. Their coaching also finally got a clue on how to win---run the ball with Lynch and then mix in some crossing patterns. The Seahawks are looking for their third straight victory and will get it against the over-matched Skins. Get on the Seahawks!!
3. NE Patriots (-4) at Philly Eagles-Over/Under 50
I never bet against Tom Brady and the Pats, even if I don't think that they will win or cover. I really don't understand this spread at all. I would have guessed it would be around 10 points. Philly is 1-4 at home ATS and straight up. QB Mike Vick and star WR Jeremy Maclin are out again. The Pats have scored at least 30 points in 7 of their 10 games so far and scored 71 points in their last two games. The Pats will score and I doubt that the Eagles will be able to keep up. Take the Pats to roll!!
1. Cleveland Browns at Cincy Bengals (-7)-Over/Under 38
Let's make this easy, the Bengals are desperate to win this game and are at home. The Browns cannot score and will be without RB Peyton Hillis again. The Browns have averaged under 11 points a game over the last five contests. Their offensive line is battered and QB Colt Mccoy has been putrid. The Bengals are 7-2-1 ATS, and have only lost to the Ravens and Steelers in the last two months. They should have no problem with the Browns in Cincy. Take the Bengals minus the points!
2. Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks (-3)-Over/Under 38
Washington is in turmoil and goes across the country to battle the suddenly decent Seahawks. That's a recipe for disaster. The Redskins are 1-4 on the road this year and have lost six games in a row overall. Seattle is 6-3-1 ATS this year and 4-1 ATS at home. They are finally healthy and rolling after starting the season slow. Their coaching also finally got a clue on how to win---run the ball with Lynch and then mix in some crossing patterns. The Seahawks are looking for their third straight victory and will get it against the over-matched Skins. Get on the Seahawks!!
3. NE Patriots (-4) at Philly Eagles-Over/Under 50
I never bet against Tom Brady and the Pats, even if I don't think that they will win or cover. I really don't understand this spread at all. I would have guessed it would be around 10 points. Philly is 1-4 at home ATS and straight up. QB Mike Vick and star WR Jeremy Maclin are out again. The Pats have scored at least 30 points in 7 of their 10 games so far and scored 71 points in their last two games. The Pats will score and I doubt that the Eagles will be able to keep up. Take the Pats to roll!!
Saturday, November 26, 2011
NCAA Saturday
NCAA Football Time
1. Ohio State at Michigan (-7.5).
I have long despised the OSU Buckeyes, always drastically overrated for some odd reason. OSU has lost two in a row and is 0-3 on the road this season. The Buckeyes have completed less than 48% of their passes this year and rank 115th in passing offense in the nation. That is insanely bad!! OSU has looked slow this year and will struggle to contain Michigan's speed on offense. QB Denard Robinson will avenge last year's humiliating 37-7 loss at OSU. I like Michigan to hurt the Buckeyes. Go with Michigan!! G*d Damn Referees f*cked Michigan.(Update 12:27 PST)
2. UAB (-3.5) at Florida Atlantic.
Florida Atlantic is 0-10 on the year and is ranked 118th overall in offense. These guys don't just lose, they lose badly. They have been outscored by 123 points in their last five games. Meanwhile, UAB is 3-5 in the underrated Conference USA. The UAB Blazers have won two in a row (at Memphis and against top 25 Southern Miss), while scoring 75 points. This looks like a team on the rise with their QB Jon Perry completing over 57% of his passes. Let's roll with the UAB Blazers for their third straight win!! Also, Take the OVER 54!
3. Troy State at Western Kentucky (-5.5)
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (6-5) are playing for first place in the Sun Belt and have won six of their last seven games. Their one loss was at #1 LSU by a score of 42-9, but were only behind 14-7 at halftime and really played well despite losing. The Hilltoppers are 9-2 ATS and are playing their final home game of the year. Troy State can pass the ball on offense, but stink on defense and will struggle to run the ball against a stout Hilltopper D. Take Western Kentucky at home playing for a shot at the conference title.
1. Ohio State at Michigan (-7.5).
I have long despised the OSU Buckeyes, always drastically overrated for some odd reason. OSU has lost two in a row and is 0-3 on the road this season. The Buckeyes have completed less than 48% of their passes this year and rank 115th in passing offense in the nation. That is insanely bad!! OSU has looked slow this year and will struggle to contain Michigan's speed on offense. QB Denard Robinson will avenge last year's humiliating 37-7 loss at OSU. I like Michigan to hurt the Buckeyes. Go with Michigan!! G*d Damn Referees f*cked Michigan.(Update 12:27 PST)
2. UAB (-3.5) at Florida Atlantic.
Florida Atlantic is 0-10 on the year and is ranked 118th overall in offense. These guys don't just lose, they lose badly. They have been outscored by 123 points in their last five games. Meanwhile, UAB is 3-5 in the underrated Conference USA. The UAB Blazers have won two in a row (at Memphis and against top 25 Southern Miss), while scoring 75 points. This looks like a team on the rise with their QB Jon Perry completing over 57% of his passes. Let's roll with the UAB Blazers for their third straight win!! Also, Take the OVER 54!
3. Troy State at Western Kentucky (-5.5)
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (6-5) are playing for first place in the Sun Belt and have won six of their last seven games. Their one loss was at #1 LSU by a score of 42-9, but were only behind 14-7 at halftime and really played well despite losing. The Hilltoppers are 9-2 ATS and are playing their final home game of the year. Troy State can pass the ball on offense, but stink on defense and will struggle to run the ball against a stout Hilltopper D. Take Western Kentucky at home playing for a shot at the conference title.
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
NFL Thanksgiving
NFL - Turkey Time
1. G.Bay Packers (-6) at Detroit Lions / Over 56.
I stated something earlier this season about taking the Packers whenever they have under a 7-point spread, and I will stick to it. I gotta admit that the Packers played real sloppy last week and their lack of a running game might hurt them in the playoffs, but we are not in post-season. The Lions are a solid team this year and I like them to make this game close. But Lions simply aren't in the same class as the Packers. Rodgers doesn't make mistakes and Stafford still does. The Lions are only 3-2 at home this year and practically lost last week to Carolina. Let's stick with the Packers minus 6!! Also, the public loves the Over 56 and it's hard to argue with that.
2. Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys (-7) / Over 45.5.
Miami is playing red-hot right now, winning their last three games in a row, but look at those victories a little closer. They beat KC, Washington and Buffalo---not an impressive bunch. The Dolphins will continue to start QB Matt Moore, who has failed to impress since taking over for the injured Chad Henne. I think the Fins are due for a regression soon. Dallas has also won three straight games and need this win to keep pace with the NY Giants for first place in the NFC East. The only real trend in this game is that the Dolphins' games have gone UNDER in 9 of their 10 games this season. My play is to take the Under --and then buy the half point with the Cowboys (-6.5).
3. SF 49ers at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) / Over 38.5.
The battle of the Harbaugh bros is our showcase on Thanksgiving night. I really cannot solve the Ravens, they seem to play great against big opponents then follow it up with a stinker. They played well against the Bengals in a battle for first place last week, winning 31-24. They could be without defensive captain MLB Ray Lewis, who is doubtful after not playing last Sunday. The Ravens seem to lose control of games when they fail to score first. The 49ers are 9-0-1 ATS this year and have been a favorite of mine for most of the year. Jim Harbaugh is the best coach in football and will show it again despite having much inferior talent than Baltimore. I like the 49ers to win, but will gladly take the 3.5 points!! If you need a Over/Under call then follow the trend, only two games all year have gone Under for Baltimore. Ride the OVER 38.5.
Have a great Thanksgiving Fools!
1. G.Bay Packers (-6) at Detroit Lions / Over 56.
I stated something earlier this season about taking the Packers whenever they have under a 7-point spread, and I will stick to it. I gotta admit that the Packers played real sloppy last week and their lack of a running game might hurt them in the playoffs, but we are not in post-season. The Lions are a solid team this year and I like them to make this game close. But Lions simply aren't in the same class as the Packers. Rodgers doesn't make mistakes and Stafford still does. The Lions are only 3-2 at home this year and practically lost last week to Carolina. Let's stick with the Packers minus 6!! Also, the public loves the Over 56 and it's hard to argue with that.
2. Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys (-7) / Over 45.5.
Miami is playing red-hot right now, winning their last three games in a row, but look at those victories a little closer. They beat KC, Washington and Buffalo---not an impressive bunch. The Dolphins will continue to start QB Matt Moore, who has failed to impress since taking over for the injured Chad Henne. I think the Fins are due for a regression soon. Dallas has also won three straight games and need this win to keep pace with the NY Giants for first place in the NFC East. The only real trend in this game is that the Dolphins' games have gone UNDER in 9 of their 10 games this season. My play is to take the Under --and then buy the half point with the Cowboys (-6.5).
3. SF 49ers at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) / Over 38.5.
The battle of the Harbaugh bros is our showcase on Thanksgiving night. I really cannot solve the Ravens, they seem to play great against big opponents then follow it up with a stinker. They played well against the Bengals in a battle for first place last week, winning 31-24. They could be without defensive captain MLB Ray Lewis, who is doubtful after not playing last Sunday. The Ravens seem to lose control of games when they fail to score first. The 49ers are 9-0-1 ATS this year and have been a favorite of mine for most of the year. Jim Harbaugh is the best coach in football and will show it again despite having much inferior talent than Baltimore. I like the 49ers to win, but will gladly take the 3.5 points!! If you need a Over/Under call then follow the trend, only two games all year have gone Under for Baltimore. Ride the OVER 38.5.
Have a great Thanksgiving Fools!
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
NFL Week #11 Calls
Week #11 - NFL
1. NY Jets (-6) at Denver Broncos - I have been a staunch Broncos supporter with Tebow as the QB all year. Coach Fox finally figured it out. Run the ball and mix up the playbook to fit Tebow's skills. The problem is that they will not be able to come back from two-score deficits, so if they fall behind early then they will be doomed. The Jets defense struggled against the run early this season, but have looked much better over the last month. Fred Jackson's 82 yards is the most yards allowed by a NYJ opponent in the last four games. The Jets should man up across the board and stack eight men in the box. I like Sanchez to find Holmes and Keller to beat a weak Denver secondary. Denver is 0-4 ATS at home this year. Go with the NY Jets!!
2. Arizona at SF 49ers (-9.5) - Gotta love the job that SF Coach Jim Harbaugh is doing with the 49ers. SF is 8-0-1 ATS this year and could be playing a dismal Cardinal squad without top RB Beanie Wells. Wells hasn't been practicing and has been limited in recent games. The 49ers are the best in the NFL against the run (73 yards/game) and haven't allowed a rushing TD in their last ten games. That means that backup QB John Skelton will have to beat the 49ers thru the air--scary. Watch for a SF defensive score in this one. Take the Niners minus the points!!
3. SD Chargers at Chicago Bears (-4) - The beat up Chargers travel to the windy city to take on the red-hot Bears. The Bears have won four straight games and have finally figured out their offense. OC Mike Martz has realized the importance of RB Matt Forte and the Bears ground game. The Bears have scored 130 points in their last four games and their defense dominated the Lions last week. The putrid Chargers are 2-7 ATS and will be without numerous key players on both sides of the ball. This could be a blood bath. Watch the Bears rout the Boltz!! Take Chicago Big!!
1. NY Jets (-6) at Denver Broncos - I have been a staunch Broncos supporter with Tebow as the QB all year. Coach Fox finally figured it out. Run the ball and mix up the playbook to fit Tebow's skills. The problem is that they will not be able to come back from two-score deficits, so if they fall behind early then they will be doomed. The Jets defense struggled against the run early this season, but have looked much better over the last month. Fred Jackson's 82 yards is the most yards allowed by a NYJ opponent in the last four games. The Jets should man up across the board and stack eight men in the box. I like Sanchez to find Holmes and Keller to beat a weak Denver secondary. Denver is 0-4 ATS at home this year. Go with the NY Jets!!
2. Arizona at SF 49ers (-9.5) - Gotta love the job that SF Coach Jim Harbaugh is doing with the 49ers. SF is 8-0-1 ATS this year and could be playing a dismal Cardinal squad without top RB Beanie Wells. Wells hasn't been practicing and has been limited in recent games. The 49ers are the best in the NFL against the run (73 yards/game) and haven't allowed a rushing TD in their last ten games. That means that backup QB John Skelton will have to beat the 49ers thru the air--scary. Watch for a SF defensive score in this one. Take the Niners minus the points!!
3. SD Chargers at Chicago Bears (-4) - The beat up Chargers travel to the windy city to take on the red-hot Bears. The Bears have won four straight games and have finally figured out their offense. OC Mike Martz has realized the importance of RB Matt Forte and the Bears ground game. The Bears have scored 130 points in their last four games and their defense dominated the Lions last week. The putrid Chargers are 2-7 ATS and will be without numerous key players on both sides of the ball. This could be a blood bath. Watch the Bears rout the Boltz!! Take Chicago Big!!
Monday, November 14, 2011
MNF Vikings at GB Packers
MNF
Minnesota Vikings at GB Packers (-13) - Over/Under 50
A few weeks ago, the Vikings changed QBs to rookie Christian Ponder, and what a difference it made. They almost beat the Packers (33-27) then went on the road to Carolina and won 24-21. They are coming off a bye week, which has been terrible so far for teams in 2011, but that should really help Ponder get a better sense of the offense. They aren't going to beat Green Bay but they could make it close or at least high scoring. The total has gone OVER in 6 of the Packers last 9 games. These two teams play allow the most passing yards in the NFL. There is no team that can stop QB Aaron Rodgers and the Packer offense. Watch for a ton of points, as the Vikings should comeback in the second half and make this game decently close. The Big Play has to be the OVER 50!!! But make sure to check the weather before game time if you can just so there isn't a suprise blizzard or something crazy. The forecast is 30* and cloudy. Good luck.
Minnesota Vikings at GB Packers (-13) - Over/Under 50
A few weeks ago, the Vikings changed QBs to rookie Christian Ponder, and what a difference it made. They almost beat the Packers (33-27) then went on the road to Carolina and won 24-21. They are coming off a bye week, which has been terrible so far for teams in 2011, but that should really help Ponder get a better sense of the offense. They aren't going to beat Green Bay but they could make it close or at least high scoring. The total has gone OVER in 6 of the Packers last 9 games. These two teams play allow the most passing yards in the NFL. There is no team that can stop QB Aaron Rodgers and the Packer offense. Watch for a ton of points, as the Vikings should comeback in the second half and make this game decently close. The Big Play has to be the OVER 50!!! But make sure to check the weather before game time if you can just so there isn't a suprise blizzard or something crazy. The forecast is 30* and cloudy. Good luck.
Monday, November 7, 2011
Week 9 Reactions
Week 9
1. Thank you Packers for covering the spread against the overrated SD Chargers. Rivers threw 6 TDs, four to SD wideouts and two to Packer DBs. Aaron Rodgers cannot be stopped---always take GB with any point spread under a TD, anywhere at any time. Too easy.
2. The SF 49ers win and cover again. They are now 7-0-1 ATS and have the best play calling in football. They dominated the Skins on the road, allowing a late garbage time TD and a 59-yd FG. Stay on them each week.
3. The NY Jets are starting to look dangerous. The Jets D looked fantastic and absolutely dominated the once fierce Bills. We need to respect the Jets from now on. They are built for cold weather and should continue to improve on offense.
4. The Cincy Bengals won on the road at Tennessee behind heroics by rookie QB Dalton. They are now 6-2 overall and 4-1 on the road this year. They even better 7-1 ATS. They host the Steelers this weekend, a win and the playoffs look legit.
5. Home Favorites Lost Big Games. Eagles and Patriots. Both blew second half leads against more desperate teams. Another note on these games--the spreads have been larger this season than normal. I don't like giving over a TD unless teams are playing bottom of the barrel competition. The Giants and Bears are solid teams with good defenses. Bad combo for giving away a lot of points.
6. Two teams come off their bye week-Carolina and Detroit-both 5-2-1 ATS. I like both for the stretch run. Carolina hosts Tennessee next week and Detroit gets Chicago.
7. Indianapolis Blows (Again). Like I said last week, take advantage of them at all times. Jags minus 3 points seems fine. The Colts cannot run or pass, they scored once this past week and it came on defense. Sad. Take the Jags this weekend!
8. The STL Rams are also pathetic. They are 1-7 ATS and managed to blow another game last week at Arizona against the backup QB. They were getting 3.5 points, but lost by 6 on a 99-yard punt return in overtime. Amazing! They are on the road this weekend at Cleveland. Do not watch this game. UGLY, low scoring game.
9. KC and Oakland losing horrible games at home. Haha. Tebow strikes down the evil empire. Sweet justice. Tebow heads to KC next week. KC got obliterated by Miami 31-3 on Sunday. Miami's first win all year! Watch for Tebow to take it to the Chiefs this week as well. Denver is 3-1 ATS on the road and should run all over KC, plus they get 3.5 points. Get on the Broncos!
1. Thank you Packers for covering the spread against the overrated SD Chargers. Rivers threw 6 TDs, four to SD wideouts and two to Packer DBs. Aaron Rodgers cannot be stopped---always take GB with any point spread under a TD, anywhere at any time. Too easy.
2. The SF 49ers win and cover again. They are now 7-0-1 ATS and have the best play calling in football. They dominated the Skins on the road, allowing a late garbage time TD and a 59-yd FG. Stay on them each week.
3. The NY Jets are starting to look dangerous. The Jets D looked fantastic and absolutely dominated the once fierce Bills. We need to respect the Jets from now on. They are built for cold weather and should continue to improve on offense.
4. The Cincy Bengals won on the road at Tennessee behind heroics by rookie QB Dalton. They are now 6-2 overall and 4-1 on the road this year. They even better 7-1 ATS. They host the Steelers this weekend, a win and the playoffs look legit.
5. Home Favorites Lost Big Games. Eagles and Patriots. Both blew second half leads against more desperate teams. Another note on these games--the spreads have been larger this season than normal. I don't like giving over a TD unless teams are playing bottom of the barrel competition. The Giants and Bears are solid teams with good defenses. Bad combo for giving away a lot of points.
6. Two teams come off their bye week-Carolina and Detroit-both 5-2-1 ATS. I like both for the stretch run. Carolina hosts Tennessee next week and Detroit gets Chicago.
7. Indianapolis Blows (Again). Like I said last week, take advantage of them at all times. Jags minus 3 points seems fine. The Colts cannot run or pass, they scored once this past week and it came on defense. Sad. Take the Jags this weekend!
8. The STL Rams are also pathetic. They are 1-7 ATS and managed to blow another game last week at Arizona against the backup QB. They were getting 3.5 points, but lost by 6 on a 99-yard punt return in overtime. Amazing! They are on the road this weekend at Cleveland. Do not watch this game. UGLY, low scoring game.
9. KC and Oakland losing horrible games at home. Haha. Tebow strikes down the evil empire. Sweet justice. Tebow heads to KC next week. KC got obliterated by Miami 31-3 on Sunday. Miami's first win all year! Watch for Tebow to take it to the Chiefs this week as well. Denver is 3-1 ATS on the road and should run all over KC, plus they get 3.5 points. Get on the Broncos!
Late MNF Action
MNF
Chicago Bears at Philly Eagles (-8) - Over/Under 48
Both teams are poor against the spread and edge toward the "Under". The Bears aren't very good, but 8 points is too high. Take the Bears +8 and the Under.
Chicago Bears at Philly Eagles (-8) - Over/Under 48
Both teams are poor against the spread and edge toward the "Under". The Bears aren't very good, but 8 points is too high. Take the Bears +8 and the Under.
Saturday, November 5, 2011
NCAA Saturday
NCAA Ball Games
1. LSU at Alabama (-4.5)- The BIG game of the day (obviously), is in primetime at 5 pm (PST). I love coach Miles for LSU, but they are on the road and aren't as talented as Bama. The only weakness on Bama is their QB, so if LSU can get ahead in this game then the Tide will be in trouble. LSU has won six of the last eight matchups with Alabama. Unreal. Let's go with LSU with the points.
2. Wash St at California (-8.5)- WSU is 2-20 on the road in their last 22 games. Cal is a much better team and playing at home, a combination that I love. Cal needs to win this game, and just crushed Utah (34-10) during their last home game. Let's roll with Cal!!
3. Utah St at Hawaii (-3)- The late night game, always a favorite of mine. Hawaii is 2-1 ATS this year and has always played well at home. They definitely take advantage of all the home field aspects. Utah State is horrible and is 2-4 ATS vs Hawaii. Hawaii is 9-1 in their last 10 home games. Go with the Fightin Rainbows!!
1. LSU at Alabama (-4.5)- The BIG game of the day (obviously), is in primetime at 5 pm (PST). I love coach Miles for LSU, but they are on the road and aren't as talented as Bama. The only weakness on Bama is their QB, so if LSU can get ahead in this game then the Tide will be in trouble. LSU has won six of the last eight matchups with Alabama. Unreal. Let's go with LSU with the points.
2. Wash St at California (-8.5)- WSU is 2-20 on the road in their last 22 games. Cal is a much better team and playing at home, a combination that I love. Cal needs to win this game, and just crushed Utah (34-10) during their last home game. Let's roll with Cal!!
3. Utah St at Hawaii (-3)- The late night game, always a favorite of mine. Hawaii is 2-1 ATS this year and has always played well at home. They definitely take advantage of all the home field aspects. Utah State is horrible and is 2-4 ATS vs Hawaii. Hawaii is 9-1 in their last 10 home games. Go with the Fightin Rainbows!!
Thursday, November 3, 2011
NCAA Friday
NCAA Friday
The Trojans (6-2) travel to the rockies to take on the hapless Buffaloes (1-8). The Trojans are a solid squad and should crush Colorado. The Buffaloes have lost six straight games and have one of the worst defenses in college football allowing 38.3 points per game. Even worse, they have been absolutely destroyed in their last four games by a combined score of 193-47. They are helpless! USC is 2-1 ATS on the road this year and need a win after the heartbreaking loss last week to Stanford. They need a convincing win for their bowl aspirations. Watch for them to dominate Colorado on national TV. Go with USC -21!!
**Late Add--USC scoring Over 40 points--that's the point line for USC only, should be easy! (Update 3:34 pm)
USC (-21) at Colorado
The Trojans (6-2) travel to the rockies to take on the hapless Buffaloes (1-8). The Trojans are a solid squad and should crush Colorado. The Buffaloes have lost six straight games and have one of the worst defenses in college football allowing 38.3 points per game. Even worse, they have been absolutely destroyed in their last four games by a combined score of 193-47. They are helpless! USC is 2-1 ATS on the road this year and need a win after the heartbreaking loss last week to Stanford. They need a convincing win for their bowl aspirations. Watch for them to dominate Colorado on national TV. Go with USC -21!!
**Late Add--USC scoring Over 40 points--that's the point line for USC only, should be easy! (Update 3:34 pm)
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