NFL - Turkey Time
1. G.Bay Packers (-6) at Detroit Lions / Over 56.
I stated something earlier this season about taking the Packers whenever they have under a 7-point spread, and I will stick to it. I gotta admit that the Packers played real sloppy last week and their lack of a running game might hurt them in the playoffs, but we are not in post-season. The Lions are a solid team this year and I like them to make this game close. But Lions simply aren't in the same class as the Packers. Rodgers doesn't make mistakes and Stafford still does. The Lions are only 3-2 at home this year and practically lost last week to Carolina. Let's stick with the Packers minus 6!! Also, the public loves the Over 56 and it's hard to argue with that.
2. Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys (-7) / Over 45.5.
Miami is playing red-hot right now, winning their last three games in a row, but look at those victories a little closer. They beat KC, Washington and Buffalo---not an impressive bunch. The Dolphins will continue to start QB Matt Moore, who has failed to impress since taking over for the injured Chad Henne. I think the Fins are due for a regression soon. Dallas has also won three straight games and need this win to keep pace with the NY Giants for first place in the NFC East. The only real trend in this game is that the Dolphins' games have gone UNDER in 9 of their 10 games this season. My play is to take the Under --and then buy the half point with the Cowboys (-6.5).
3. SF 49ers at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) / Over 38.5.
The battle of the Harbaugh bros is our showcase on Thanksgiving night. I really cannot solve the Ravens, they seem to play great against big opponents then follow it up with a stinker. They played well against the Bengals in a battle for first place last week, winning 31-24. They could be without defensive captain MLB Ray Lewis, who is doubtful after not playing last Sunday. The Ravens seem to lose control of games when they fail to score first. The 49ers are 9-0-1 ATS this year and have been a favorite of mine for most of the year. Jim Harbaugh is the best coach in football and will show it again despite having much inferior talent than Baltimore. I like the 49ers to win, but will gladly take the 3.5 points!! If you need a Over/Under call then follow the trend, only two games all year have gone Under for Baltimore. Ride the OVER 38.5.
Have a great Thanksgiving Fools!
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
NFL Week #11 Calls
Week #11 - NFL
1. NY Jets (-6) at Denver Broncos - I have been a staunch Broncos supporter with Tebow as the QB all year. Coach Fox finally figured it out. Run the ball and mix up the playbook to fit Tebow's skills. The problem is that they will not be able to come back from two-score deficits, so if they fall behind early then they will be doomed. The Jets defense struggled against the run early this season, but have looked much better over the last month. Fred Jackson's 82 yards is the most yards allowed by a NYJ opponent in the last four games. The Jets should man up across the board and stack eight men in the box. I like Sanchez to find Holmes and Keller to beat a weak Denver secondary. Denver is 0-4 ATS at home this year. Go with the NY Jets!!
2. Arizona at SF 49ers (-9.5) - Gotta love the job that SF Coach Jim Harbaugh is doing with the 49ers. SF is 8-0-1 ATS this year and could be playing a dismal Cardinal squad without top RB Beanie Wells. Wells hasn't been practicing and has been limited in recent games. The 49ers are the best in the NFL against the run (73 yards/game) and haven't allowed a rushing TD in their last ten games. That means that backup QB John Skelton will have to beat the 49ers thru the air--scary. Watch for a SF defensive score in this one. Take the Niners minus the points!!
3. SD Chargers at Chicago Bears (-4) - The beat up Chargers travel to the windy city to take on the red-hot Bears. The Bears have won four straight games and have finally figured out their offense. OC Mike Martz has realized the importance of RB Matt Forte and the Bears ground game. The Bears have scored 130 points in their last four games and their defense dominated the Lions last week. The putrid Chargers are 2-7 ATS and will be without numerous key players on both sides of the ball. This could be a blood bath. Watch the Bears rout the Boltz!! Take Chicago Big!!
1. NY Jets (-6) at Denver Broncos - I have been a staunch Broncos supporter with Tebow as the QB all year. Coach Fox finally figured it out. Run the ball and mix up the playbook to fit Tebow's skills. The problem is that they will not be able to come back from two-score deficits, so if they fall behind early then they will be doomed. The Jets defense struggled against the run early this season, but have looked much better over the last month. Fred Jackson's 82 yards is the most yards allowed by a NYJ opponent in the last four games. The Jets should man up across the board and stack eight men in the box. I like Sanchez to find Holmes and Keller to beat a weak Denver secondary. Denver is 0-4 ATS at home this year. Go with the NY Jets!!
2. Arizona at SF 49ers (-9.5) - Gotta love the job that SF Coach Jim Harbaugh is doing with the 49ers. SF is 8-0-1 ATS this year and could be playing a dismal Cardinal squad without top RB Beanie Wells. Wells hasn't been practicing and has been limited in recent games. The 49ers are the best in the NFL against the run (73 yards/game) and haven't allowed a rushing TD in their last ten games. That means that backup QB John Skelton will have to beat the 49ers thru the air--scary. Watch for a SF defensive score in this one. Take the Niners minus the points!!
3. SD Chargers at Chicago Bears (-4) - The beat up Chargers travel to the windy city to take on the red-hot Bears. The Bears have won four straight games and have finally figured out their offense. OC Mike Martz has realized the importance of RB Matt Forte and the Bears ground game. The Bears have scored 130 points in their last four games and their defense dominated the Lions last week. The putrid Chargers are 2-7 ATS and will be without numerous key players on both sides of the ball. This could be a blood bath. Watch the Bears rout the Boltz!! Take Chicago Big!!
Monday, November 14, 2011
MNF Vikings at GB Packers
MNF
Minnesota Vikings at GB Packers (-13) - Over/Under 50
A few weeks ago, the Vikings changed QBs to rookie Christian Ponder, and what a difference it made. They almost beat the Packers (33-27) then went on the road to Carolina and won 24-21. They are coming off a bye week, which has been terrible so far for teams in 2011, but that should really help Ponder get a better sense of the offense. They aren't going to beat Green Bay but they could make it close or at least high scoring. The total has gone OVER in 6 of the Packers last 9 games. These two teams play allow the most passing yards in the NFL. There is no team that can stop QB Aaron Rodgers and the Packer offense. Watch for a ton of points, as the Vikings should comeback in the second half and make this game decently close. The Big Play has to be the OVER 50!!! But make sure to check the weather before game time if you can just so there isn't a suprise blizzard or something crazy. The forecast is 30* and cloudy. Good luck.
Minnesota Vikings at GB Packers (-13) - Over/Under 50
A few weeks ago, the Vikings changed QBs to rookie Christian Ponder, and what a difference it made. They almost beat the Packers (33-27) then went on the road to Carolina and won 24-21. They are coming off a bye week, which has been terrible so far for teams in 2011, but that should really help Ponder get a better sense of the offense. They aren't going to beat Green Bay but they could make it close or at least high scoring. The total has gone OVER in 6 of the Packers last 9 games. These two teams play allow the most passing yards in the NFL. There is no team that can stop QB Aaron Rodgers and the Packer offense. Watch for a ton of points, as the Vikings should comeback in the second half and make this game decently close. The Big Play has to be the OVER 50!!! But make sure to check the weather before game time if you can just so there isn't a suprise blizzard or something crazy. The forecast is 30* and cloudy. Good luck.
Monday, November 7, 2011
Week 9 Reactions
Week 9
1. Thank you Packers for covering the spread against the overrated SD Chargers. Rivers threw 6 TDs, four to SD wideouts and two to Packer DBs. Aaron Rodgers cannot be stopped---always take GB with any point spread under a TD, anywhere at any time. Too easy.
2. The SF 49ers win and cover again. They are now 7-0-1 ATS and have the best play calling in football. They dominated the Skins on the road, allowing a late garbage time TD and a 59-yd FG. Stay on them each week.
3. The NY Jets are starting to look dangerous. The Jets D looked fantastic and absolutely dominated the once fierce Bills. We need to respect the Jets from now on. They are built for cold weather and should continue to improve on offense.
4. The Cincy Bengals won on the road at Tennessee behind heroics by rookie QB Dalton. They are now 6-2 overall and 4-1 on the road this year. They even better 7-1 ATS. They host the Steelers this weekend, a win and the playoffs look legit.
5. Home Favorites Lost Big Games. Eagles and Patriots. Both blew second half leads against more desperate teams. Another note on these games--the spreads have been larger this season than normal. I don't like giving over a TD unless teams are playing bottom of the barrel competition. The Giants and Bears are solid teams with good defenses. Bad combo for giving away a lot of points.
6. Two teams come off their bye week-Carolina and Detroit-both 5-2-1 ATS. I like both for the stretch run. Carolina hosts Tennessee next week and Detroit gets Chicago.
7. Indianapolis Blows (Again). Like I said last week, take advantage of them at all times. Jags minus 3 points seems fine. The Colts cannot run or pass, they scored once this past week and it came on defense. Sad. Take the Jags this weekend!
8. The STL Rams are also pathetic. They are 1-7 ATS and managed to blow another game last week at Arizona against the backup QB. They were getting 3.5 points, but lost by 6 on a 99-yard punt return in overtime. Amazing! They are on the road this weekend at Cleveland. Do not watch this game. UGLY, low scoring game.
9. KC and Oakland losing horrible games at home. Haha. Tebow strikes down the evil empire. Sweet justice. Tebow heads to KC next week. KC got obliterated by Miami 31-3 on Sunday. Miami's first win all year! Watch for Tebow to take it to the Chiefs this week as well. Denver is 3-1 ATS on the road and should run all over KC, plus they get 3.5 points. Get on the Broncos!
1. Thank you Packers for covering the spread against the overrated SD Chargers. Rivers threw 6 TDs, four to SD wideouts and two to Packer DBs. Aaron Rodgers cannot be stopped---always take GB with any point spread under a TD, anywhere at any time. Too easy.
2. The SF 49ers win and cover again. They are now 7-0-1 ATS and have the best play calling in football. They dominated the Skins on the road, allowing a late garbage time TD and a 59-yd FG. Stay on them each week.
3. The NY Jets are starting to look dangerous. The Jets D looked fantastic and absolutely dominated the once fierce Bills. We need to respect the Jets from now on. They are built for cold weather and should continue to improve on offense.
4. The Cincy Bengals won on the road at Tennessee behind heroics by rookie QB Dalton. They are now 6-2 overall and 4-1 on the road this year. They even better 7-1 ATS. They host the Steelers this weekend, a win and the playoffs look legit.
5. Home Favorites Lost Big Games. Eagles and Patriots. Both blew second half leads against more desperate teams. Another note on these games--the spreads have been larger this season than normal. I don't like giving over a TD unless teams are playing bottom of the barrel competition. The Giants and Bears are solid teams with good defenses. Bad combo for giving away a lot of points.
6. Two teams come off their bye week-Carolina and Detroit-both 5-2-1 ATS. I like both for the stretch run. Carolina hosts Tennessee next week and Detroit gets Chicago.
7. Indianapolis Blows (Again). Like I said last week, take advantage of them at all times. Jags minus 3 points seems fine. The Colts cannot run or pass, they scored once this past week and it came on defense. Sad. Take the Jags this weekend!
8. The STL Rams are also pathetic. They are 1-7 ATS and managed to blow another game last week at Arizona against the backup QB. They were getting 3.5 points, but lost by 6 on a 99-yard punt return in overtime. Amazing! They are on the road this weekend at Cleveland. Do not watch this game. UGLY, low scoring game.
9. KC and Oakland losing horrible games at home. Haha. Tebow strikes down the evil empire. Sweet justice. Tebow heads to KC next week. KC got obliterated by Miami 31-3 on Sunday. Miami's first win all year! Watch for Tebow to take it to the Chiefs this week as well. Denver is 3-1 ATS on the road and should run all over KC, plus they get 3.5 points. Get on the Broncos!
Late MNF Action
MNF
Chicago Bears at Philly Eagles (-8) - Over/Under 48
Both teams are poor against the spread and edge toward the "Under". The Bears aren't very good, but 8 points is too high. Take the Bears +8 and the Under.
Chicago Bears at Philly Eagles (-8) - Over/Under 48
Both teams are poor against the spread and edge toward the "Under". The Bears aren't very good, but 8 points is too high. Take the Bears +8 and the Under.
Saturday, November 5, 2011
NCAA Saturday
NCAA Ball Games
1. LSU at Alabama (-4.5)- The BIG game of the day (obviously), is in primetime at 5 pm (PST). I love coach Miles for LSU, but they are on the road and aren't as talented as Bama. The only weakness on Bama is their QB, so if LSU can get ahead in this game then the Tide will be in trouble. LSU has won six of the last eight matchups with Alabama. Unreal. Let's go with LSU with the points.
2. Wash St at California (-8.5)- WSU is 2-20 on the road in their last 22 games. Cal is a much better team and playing at home, a combination that I love. Cal needs to win this game, and just crushed Utah (34-10) during their last home game. Let's roll with Cal!!
3. Utah St at Hawaii (-3)- The late night game, always a favorite of mine. Hawaii is 2-1 ATS this year and has always played well at home. They definitely take advantage of all the home field aspects. Utah State is horrible and is 2-4 ATS vs Hawaii. Hawaii is 9-1 in their last 10 home games. Go with the Fightin Rainbows!!
1. LSU at Alabama (-4.5)- The BIG game of the day (obviously), is in primetime at 5 pm (PST). I love coach Miles for LSU, but they are on the road and aren't as talented as Bama. The only weakness on Bama is their QB, so if LSU can get ahead in this game then the Tide will be in trouble. LSU has won six of the last eight matchups with Alabama. Unreal. Let's go with LSU with the points.
2. Wash St at California (-8.5)- WSU is 2-20 on the road in their last 22 games. Cal is a much better team and playing at home, a combination that I love. Cal needs to win this game, and just crushed Utah (34-10) during their last home game. Let's roll with Cal!!
3. Utah St at Hawaii (-3)- The late night game, always a favorite of mine. Hawaii is 2-1 ATS this year and has always played well at home. They definitely take advantage of all the home field aspects. Utah State is horrible and is 2-4 ATS vs Hawaii. Hawaii is 9-1 in their last 10 home games. Go with the Fightin Rainbows!!
Thursday, November 3, 2011
NCAA Friday
NCAA Friday
The Trojans (6-2) travel to the rockies to take on the hapless Buffaloes (1-8). The Trojans are a solid squad and should crush Colorado. The Buffaloes have lost six straight games and have one of the worst defenses in college football allowing 38.3 points per game. Even worse, they have been absolutely destroyed in their last four games by a combined score of 193-47. They are helpless! USC is 2-1 ATS on the road this year and need a win after the heartbreaking loss last week to Stanford. They need a convincing win for their bowl aspirations. Watch for them to dominate Colorado on national TV. Go with USC -21!!
**Late Add--USC scoring Over 40 points--that's the point line for USC only, should be easy! (Update 3:34 pm)
USC (-21) at Colorado
The Trojans (6-2) travel to the rockies to take on the hapless Buffaloes (1-8). The Trojans are a solid squad and should crush Colorado. The Buffaloes have lost six straight games and have one of the worst defenses in college football allowing 38.3 points per game. Even worse, they have been absolutely destroyed in their last four games by a combined score of 193-47. They are helpless! USC is 2-1 ATS on the road this year and need a win after the heartbreaking loss last week to Stanford. They need a convincing win for their bowl aspirations. Watch for them to dominate Colorado on national TV. Go with USC -21!!
**Late Add--USC scoring Over 40 points--that's the point line for USC only, should be easy! (Update 3:34 pm)
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